The Mideast Core

Condoleezza Rice nudges Israelis and Palestinians into talking about the terms of a final settlement.

THE GOOD news about Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Mideast diplomacy is that she has gotten Israeli and Palestinian leaders talking seriously for the first time since 2000 about what she calls "the core issues that relate to the establishment of a Palestinian state." Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have been quietly discussing that state's borders, what part of Jerusalem it might claim and whether any of the millions of Palestinian refugees would be allowed to "return" to Israel, among other thorny problems. Though many of the necessary conditions for a Middle East peace settlement are conspicuously absent, one key element exists as never before: Both Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas genuinely believe in a two-state solution and seem open to compromise.

Ms. Rice nevertheless returned from her latest visit to the region on Friday facing a daunting -- and dangerous -- path toward the "joint statement" that she hopes Israelis and Palestinians will agree on in time for an international meeting in Washington this fall. Daunting, because the Israeli and Palestinian leaders will have to reach agreement in a matter of weeks on issues that have bedeviled Middle East negotiations for decades or at least find clever ways to finesse them. And dangerous, not only because the Hamas movement, Syria and other spoilers will almost certainly seek to violently disrupt any progress. Having raised expectations by announcing a conference, a failure by Ms. Rice to successfully stage one will add to the discredit of the United States in the Arab world and could trigger more warfare between Israelis and Palestinians -- as happened following the failed Camp David conference seven years ago.

Any breakthrough will be limited; a substantial peace process will have to wait for a unified and representative Palestinian government. But Ms. Rice could shorten the long odds to achieving her "joint statement" with some aggressive diplomacy in the coming weeks.

First, the United States will have to persuade Arab states -- above all, Saudi Arabia -- to attend the conference and stand behind any accord. Mr. Abbas will need Arab support to compromise on the refugee issue, and Mr. Olmert wants to use the prospect of Saudi recognition to win over Israelis.

Ms. Rice should also discourage Israel from intensifying the ongoing conflict with Hamas-ruled Gaza by shutting off its electricity and fuel supplies. It's hardly possible that Mr. Olmert will be able to negotiate peace with one set of Palestinians while waging war against another. Instead, Israel should be open to striking a cease-fire with Hamas and opening peace talks with Syria.

Finally, the Bush administration needs to prepare for the possibility that no agreement will emerge from the Israeli-Palestinian talks. In that case the United States could offer its own specific bridging proposals on such issues as Israel's final borders. In the past this administration has avoided such interventions. But having set the stage for an Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough, Ms. Rice and President Bush now must spare no effort to make it happen.