Debating the Economic Toll
Officials, Analysts Split on Effect of Greenway Fee Increases

By Jonathan Mummolo
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 27, 2007

The question of how high tolls will get on the Dulles Greenway was settled this month when state officials gave the road's owners permission to charge drivers as much as $9.60 per round trip by January 2012.

Now politicians, transportation experts and business analysts are debating a more complicated question: What effect will the toll increases have on Loudoun's economy?

Some public officials and political candidates say the tolls will be not only a burden on motorists but a drag on local commerce.

"I think it could have a negative impact," Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R) said of the State Corporation Commission's decision to allow gradual increases culminating in a one-way rush-hour toll of $4.80 by 2012. "Let's say you're thinking of shopping in a store. You would have to pay $4.80 to get out and $4.80 to get back. . . . It's almost a toll on living."

Amid the consumer backlash and political uproar, analysts are divided on whether Loudoun's economy will suffer. Some experts say there are scenarios in which a pricier Greenway could turn out to be the boon, not the bane, of local business.

Those who worry about the economic effects argue that such high tolls could force more people off the highway and onto congested local roads such as Route 7 -- increasing commute times, delaying deliveries and making Loudoun a less attractive place in which to work.

"Are [potential employees] going to want to work there if they have to pay that fee every day?" asked Tony Howard, president of the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce, which denounced in January the pending toll hike. "We're in a very tight labor market in Northern Virginia, and you need every advantage you can get."

According to traffic analysts, a significant number of commuters might take local roads if tolls get beyond a certain threshold.

"One of the things that you'll see is mostly a diversion effect, where they'll push people off into parallel routes" if tolls are too high, said Alan E. Pisarski, author of the "Commuting in America" book series and a resident of Fairfax County.

But if increased tolls on the Greenway guarantee swift travel for motorists, that could have a positive economic effect, some analysts said.

Such a roadway increases "reliability" -- a key concern in today's marketplace.

"In the 19th century, the story of transportation was to reduce costs," said Dick Mudge, an economist with Delcan, a transportation engineering firm in Vienna. "In the 20th century, the story was higher speeds. In the 21st century, the story, I believe, will be increasing reliability. . . . You may have to pay a lot more than you would have paid before, but you know you won't be late."

A free-flowing road -- even an expensive one -- helps to prevent late deliveries, cancellation of meetings and missing of flights and could result in a net positive for local business, Mudge said.

There is also no consensus on how high tolls would have to get before large numbers of drivers abandoned the Greenway. Some analysts said that even the approved increases probably will not trigger such a reaction in Loudoun, which has the second-highest median income of any county in the nation.

"When you have pretty high demand, you're going to have pretty high tolls," said Ronald F. Kirby, director of transportation planning at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. "It's a well-to-do region. . . . People driving downtown might be paying 13, 14 bucks a day to park. . . . Even though those toll rates sound high . . . you wouldn't expect it to frighten people off."

Toll hikes on the Greenway have not resulted in significant spurts in usage of other roads, said Art Smith, senior coordinator for planning and development with the county's Office of Transportation Services.

"Its volumes are growing but not spurting," Smith said of Route 7. He said he does not think that a lot of people have been switching to Route 7 because of the tolls, "but there could be as the tolls continue to go up."

Smith also cited plans to replace stoplights with interchanges on Route 7 between the Leesburg Bypass and Route 28 over the next few years. He said the improved traffic flow would result in an incentive for drivers to choose the secondary road over the Greenway.

To further complicate matters, even if the high tolls scared commuters onto secondary roads en masse, the gridlock would probably push them back onto the Greenway, Mudge said.

"If the congestion gets so bad on these roads, they'll say, 'Oh, it is worth it,' " he said. "It's a feedback effect."

There may be only one certainty about getting around in Loudoun in the years to come: Drivers will pay -- either with their wallet or with their time.