Looking for the Bottom

The National Association of Realtors uses yet another methodology, basing its numbers on sales prices of existing single-family homes sold through multiple listing services. It pegged the median price of a house in the Washington area at $445,300 in the second quarter of this year, up 0.3 percent from the corresponding period last year.

Nationally, the median price in the second quarter of 2007 was $223,900, down 1.3 percent from last year, according to the Realtors' association.

More specifically, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, the local multiple listing service, the median price of a home sold in August in the Washington area ranged from $315,000 in Frederick County and $320,000 in Prince George's County to $478,750 in Fairfax County and $528,000 in Arlington County. (In this case, the numbers lump together condo and house sales.)

MRIS can also break down sales by Zip code. That shows that even within localities, such as Bethesda, prices have increased in some Zip codes and declined in others.

Indeed, real estate agents like Maxine Schwartzman, who works with Long & Foster in Bethesda, say they are still seeing multiple bids on homes in "hot neighborhoods."

"The good ones don't stay on the market that long," she said. She admitted, though, that bidding wars are the exception, not the rule, as they were about two years ago.

Those boom years were marked by a tight inventory of houses for sale. In Fairfax County, for example, there were 3,976 homes for sale in August 2005, vs. 8,231 in August 2007, according to MRIS. In Prince William, inventory rose from 2,753 in August 2005 to 6,515 last month. In the District, listings more than doubled, from 1,329 to 3,038.

Regionwide, listings more than doubled over that time. In total, there were 49,047 houses and condos listed for sale in 14 jurisdictions last month, compared with 20,662 in August 2005 and 45,684 in August 2006.

Similarly, the number of days it takes to sell a house has shot up since the boom, though in some parts of the region it has begun to fall back. Still, the time can still be counted in months, not just weeks.

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, said the problems in the mortgage industry that have led to a national credit crunch this year are "undermining housing demand."

"The Washington market is also very soft," he said. "Prices are falling in many parts of the metropolitan area and will continue to do so, at least through this time next year."

Boyd Campbell, a broker-owner of Century 21 Home Center in Lanham, seems anything but alarmed by the latest snapshot of the market.