The Generals Who Would Be Kings

As one Rangoon-based Western diplomat once told me, "They fear that if they don't hang together, they'll hang separately." In the Philippines, "people-power" uprisings have driven two presidents from power: Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and Joseph Estrada in 2001. But given the Burmese military's extraordinary powers and unique position astride the state, anything similar seems impossible in Burma.

The warrior kings who had those luxury mansions built for them in Maymyo -- the hard men who make their own decisions regardless of what their own people say and think, let alone the outside world -- may well be beyond redemption. So Burma's only hope is the younger generation of army officers, who might come to understand the need to negotiate with the pro-democracy movement. But for now, no one has been able to identify any "young Turks" lurking in the wings. At most, the protests could help sections of the army realize that there is no future in supporting the present regime. If change does come to Burma, it will come because of actions taken by younger army officers, not by monks on the streets.

lintner@asiapacificms.com

Bertil Lintner, a former correspondent for the

Far Eastern Economic Review, is the author of "Outrage: Burma's Struggle for Democracy" and

four other books about Burma.