A Small Outbreak of Mideast Hope

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"We see exactly what you are doing," Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak told a European official recently in a dismissive manner, according to notes of the conversation taken by the official. "You will lose a lot in the Arab world."

¿ Mubarak's defiance points to a third, less positive, change: his entrenched immobility on peace with Israel, as well as on political change and on deepening social problems at home. Under Anwar Sadat, Egypt was a catalyst for peace and regional change. Now Egypt says it will come to the U.S.-sponsored conference in November in a completely passive mode. It will be there to support Saudi Arabia, not American peacemaking.

The Saudis at least seem to have a more activist approach. Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told reporters in New York on Wednesday that an Israeli "moratorium on the building of settlements" in the West Bank "will be a good signal to show a serious intent" to reach peace. He suggested it would enable Saudi Arabia to come to the conference.

U.S. encouragement of a meaningful moratorium by Israel now is a key step in rescuing Gaza from Hamas this winter. So is full U.S. support for Blair's ambitious effort to engage moderate forces in Gaza. Circumstances may be just desperate enough for reason and good will to break out suddenly.

jimhoagland@washpost.com