By Robin Wright and Griff Witte
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, October 6, 2007

For months, the United States quietly brokered secret talks between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and exiled former leader Benazir Bhutto to ease Pakistan's political crisis and keep allies in charge of a country on the front line of extremism.

But Washington is almost certain to find its central goal of reviving the faltering campaign against al-Qaeda and the Taliban more difficult after Pakistan holds its presidential election today, U.S. officials and analysts say.

If all goes as precariously negotiated, Pakistan is likely to emerge from its political transition dominated by two politicians -- Musharraf, an unpopular army chief under political siege since March, and Bhutto, a former prime minister twice ousted after corruption scandals. Both are widely seen as pro-Western and unrepresentative of the priorities of most Pakistanis.

"The United States has no choice but to rely on these two," said Marvin G. Weinbaum, a former State Department Pakistan analyst. "But Musharraf is today significantly weakened. Whatever his sincerity, whatever his willingness to help the United States against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, he doesn't have the capacity to do it. And Bhutto is badly out of touch."

Despite weeks of turmoil over the vote, the poll itself is a formality. National and provincial assemblies that elect the president, produced in rigged 2002 elections, are packed with Musharraf supporters.

A Supreme Court decision yesterday ensured that the confusion over who will rule Pakistan will continue for at least a few more weeks. While the court allowed the election to proceed, the judges said the results will not be finalized until they can hear challenges to Musharraf's eligibility to run.

Pakistan then faces months of intense political jockeying and uncertainty. By Jan. 15, the nation must hold fresh parliamentary elections. With no single party believed to hold a commanding position, the elections are likely to be hard fought, and the aftermath could be volatile as parties scramble to forge coalitions and a government.

Bhutto's party is expected to do well. Scheduled to return from eight years in exile on Oct. 18, she and other former officials yesterday tentatively won amnesty for alleged corruption in a deal with Musharraf. But to become prime minister as party leader, she will also need a waiver of the prohibition on serving more than two terms.

In a strategy based largely on damage control, however, a coalition government that brings together Musharraf and Bhutto is viewed by U.S. officials as the best of their bad options. Both are moderate and, at least rhetorically, take a hard line on rising extremism in Pakistan. But the two leaders have a history of tense relations and personal animosity.

Many Pakistanis criticize Washington for paying lip service to democracy but limiting their say in choosing their leaders. The United States did little when former prime minister Nawaz Sharif tried to return to Pakistan last month, only to be instantly expelled.

For the United States, the new power equation is likely to complicate cooperation with a Pakistan that has relied singularly on one general since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. "It will not be easier to do business with Pakistan in the future," said Daniel Markey, State Department policy planner for Pakistan until earlier this year. "There will be more power players, and complicated problems are likely to become more complicated to solve."

From the Pakistani perspective, running U.S. policy exclusively through an unpopular general who seized power from Sharif in a 1999 coup and appointed himself president in 2001 has been disastrous for U.S. standing and counterterrorism objectives. Only 19 percent of Pakistanis now have a favorable view of the United States, according to a recent poll by the nonpartisan group Terror Free Tomorrow.

Many think that transitioning to democracy, however messy it may be, will bolster counterterrorism efforts because the nation's leadership will have a popular mandate.

"The U.S. has recently started to realize that it's in the best interest of both Pakistan and the U.S. that the democratic forces should be given support as well," said Farooq Naek, a senator from Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party.

America's reputation in Pakistan has been battered this year. Radical Islamic groups have gained traction by criticizing military operations in tribal areas and in the siege at Islamabad's Red Mosque as a U.S. plot to drive Pakistanis to kill their own people.

"The vast majority of Pakistanis still see this fight as an American one, especially army soldiers who are forced to fight in alien territory against Pakistani citizens," Markey said. "They have not come around to the idea this is a battle for Pakistan's security."

Washington hopes to build on its relationship with Pakistan after the political dust settles, encouraging education reform and economic development, especially in volatile tribal areas along the Afghan border, U.S. officials say.

But the main focus will inevitably remain strategic goals that have been on hold for almost a year because of the political crisis, U.S. officials concede.

Witte reported from Islamabad, Pakistan.