Hizzoner Sees the GOP Facing A Clinton-Obama Ticket

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, October 7, 2007

Rudy Giuliani is a politician, not a prognosticator, but that doesn't stop Hizzoner from throwing out a guess or two about the Democratic presidential field.

"Absolutely," the former New York mayor responded when asked during an interview late last week whether he believed that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the Democratic standard-bearer. "I believe she will be the nominee, and Senator Obama will be the vice presidential nominee."

It's no surprise that Giuliani thinks his fellow New Yorker will be the party's pick -- every Republican operative The Fix can find agrees -- but his choice for veep is more intriguing.

Why Barack Obama? "He's kind of earned it," Giuliani said. "He brings a kind of enthusiasm to the ticket that everyone desires and likes to have."

While Giuliani derided Clinton as "going more socialist" of late in her policy proposals, he admitted a healthy respect for her political operation as well as the potential strengths of a Clinton-Obama ticket in '08. "That's the candidacy we are going to be facing, and that is a very formidable candidacy," he said.

The remedy, of course, is to make sure that he is the Republican nominee, Giuliani said. He called Republicans "underdogs" in the race for the White House and added that the party should not be guided by the "old playbook" in picking its nominee. That playbook, explained Giuliani, is the decision to "rule out" 15 to 20 states, "concentrate on the base and then hope that you win Ohio, hope that you win Florida." Adhering to that strategy means "sure defeat," he added.

Giuliani has long used the electability argument as part of his appeal to Republicans desperate to hold on to the White House -- or, more accurately, to keep Clinton out of the Oval Office. He alone among the Republican candidates can expand the electoral map beyond the 15 or so targeted states in each of the past two elections, he insists.

That seems a bit too ambitious, but polling does show that states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania are potentially in play for Republicans if Giuliani heads the ticket but would not be if he doesn't.

"We have to have a candidate that can run in all 50 states," Giuliani said, adding that by nominating him the party would also improve its chances of winning back Congress. "We should give ourselves the best chance to win."

Pick a Side Already

Hillary Clinton has a lot going for her these days: that big lead in national polls, a whopping fundraising quarter, all those coveted endorsements.

But, this being the baseball postseason, The Fix prefers to turns its attention to Clinton's curious disclosure during the Sept. 26 Democratic debate in New Hampshire that she would "alternate sides" if both the Chicago Cubs and the New York Yankees make it to the World Series this year. (A big "if" as of this writing, but so be it.)

Clinton, who grew up in suburban Chicago, describes herself as a lifelong Cubs supporter who developed an affection for the Yankees as a young girl. Fair enough. But for sports fans, that's the baseball equivalent of yin and yang. Clinton's dual Cubs-Yankees citizenship may be one of the most compelling facts known about the Democratic presidential front-runner.

On the one hand, the Cubs and Yankees are both well-known teams with national and passionate fan bases. But as Xavier University psychology professor Christian End points out, the inherent identities of the two teams are in conflict: the persecutor vs. the persecuted. "The Yankees can focus on their successes -- no one can compete with them," said End, who has studied fan behavior. Cubs fans are riding on a different bandwagon. "You can't question their loyalty," said End. "They stick by their losers."

Sports psychologist John F. Murray, based in Palm Beach, Fla., ticked off a few Cubs-vs.-Yankees discrepancies: "Legacy of the Billy Goat Hex versus the House that Ruth Built. The Collapse of 1969 versus just another -- yawn -- comeback and title. A target-shaped logo that says 'Hit me' versus striking bold pinstripes that say 'I'm hitting you!' " Murray concluded: "Hillary needs to make her mind up. These differences leave no room for political correctness."

Scrambling in Santa Fe

Although Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) formally announced his retirement only on Thursday, the race to succeed him is rapidly taking shape.

For Republicans, Rep. Heather Wilson is in -- creating (yet another) potential open-seat pickup for House Democrats. Rep. Steve Pearce met with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (R-Nev.) late last week and is currently on a family vacation during which he is expected to make up his mind about a bid.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) has expressed no interest (so far) in a bid, saying Friday: "Being a governor is better than being a senator. But I'm going to win the [presidential] nomination, so this is all academic."

Rep. Tom Udall (D) removed himself from consideration Friday, releasing a statement that cited his desire to accrue seniority in the House as his primary reason for not entering the race.

That leaves Democrats with either Lt. Gov. Diane Denish or Albuquerque Mayor Martin Ch¿vez. Both have expressed interest in the open governor's race in 2010, but an open Senate seat in what looks to be a strong Democratic year may be too tempting to pass up. National Democratic strategists insist both candidates are taking a hard look at the race.

The filing deadline in New Mexico is among the earliest in the country -- Feb. 8, 2008 -- and so the shape of the field will be known sooner rather than later. That would also give Richardson, should his prediction about his bid for the Democratic presidential nod not come to pass, a very narrow window in which to decide about a Senate race as a fallback option.

8 days: Reports detailing the donations and expenditures of all the candidates for president over the past three months are due to the Federal Election Commission. Data junkies -- of which The Fix is one -- can barely contain their glee.

30 days: What once looked like a cakewalk for Ohio state Rep. Bob Latta (R) in the special election to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) has turned into a street fight thanks to the Club for Growth. The D.C.-based organization, which prides itself on backing fiscal conservatives, is savaging Latta for allegedly supporting tax increases in the legislature. The likely beneficiary? State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R), the club's endorsed candidate in the contest.