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In Argentine Race, A Diplomatic Touch

Front-runner Cristina Fern¿ndez de Kirchner with President N¿stor Kirchner at a Buenos Aires rally. (By Natacha Pisarenko -- Associated Press)
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A survey published in La Nación newspaper recently estimated that Fernández de Kirchner has 39.8 percent of the vote, followed by Carrió with 11.7 percent. Other polls have shown Fernández de Kirchner leading Carrió and former economy minister Roberto Lavagna by about 20 percentage points.

To avoid a November runoff, the winner of the election must get at least 45 percent of all votes cast, or get at least 40 percent and defeat the nearest challenger by at least 10 points.

The 13 opposition candidates have struggled to gain traction. As recently as late August, some of them were still trying to negotiate compromises and determine among themselves who would actually run. None of them has the support of an established political party with strong backing in all regions of the country.

"With the collapse of the Radical Party and the resignation of [President] Fernando de la Rúa in 2001, in a sense the only institutionalized opposition disappeared," said Riordan Roett, director of the Western Hemisphere program at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

"The vacuum has been filled by personalities. These really aren't institutionalized movements but rather individuals," Roett added.

If elected, Fernández de Kirchner would be the second female to be elected president in South America in the past two years, following the victory of Chile's Michelle Bachelet last year. But gender was a far more visible issue in that election than it has been this year in Argentina, where arguably the most popular historical political figure is Eva Perón.

And the first lady, who has served as a national senator for the provinces of both Santa Cruz and Buenos Aires, is quick to remind people that she had a political career before her husband became president.

"I was much more well known than he was before, because he was a provincial governor and I was a national senator with a very strong, very high public profile," Fernández de Kirchner said during an interview in Mexico this year with CNN's Spanish-language service. "It prompted some to say in 2003, 'Why isn't she the candidate?' "


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