Davis Would Benefit From Primary Format for Senate Race

Whether U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III decides to run for U.S. Senate might depend on how GOP leaders decide to pick the candidate. (By Kevin Clark -- The Washington Post)

RICHMOND As Virginia Republican leaders gather this weekend to decide whether to hold a convention or primary to select their nominee for the U.S. Senate, no one will be following the outcome closer than U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.).

For Davis, the leaders' decision could help determine whether he will enter the nominating contest that will determine which Republican takes on former governor Mark R. Warner (D) in the general election.

Throughout the summer, much of the focus was on the options Warner had as he considered whether to run for the Senate next year or governor in 2009. But Davis, who is widely regarded as a moderate Republican, also has options that require lots of decisions over the coming weeks.

The first is whether to run for Senate, depending on what happens Saturday. The committee vote will shape the GOP contest for the Senate nomination in the spring.

In a convention, several thousand GOP activists, many driven by their opposition to abortion rights, pack a location to choose the party's nominee. But in a primary, any Virginian could vote.

Davis has been working hard to secure a primary, which he argues would give the eventual GOP candidate time to build familiarity with voters.

Some conservatives, including former governor James S. Gilmore III (R), are advocating a convention. Gilmore, who is also pondering a bid for the Senate, says that a convention would cost each candidate about $1 million, compared with the $4 million that might have to be spent to win a primary.

And that $3 million saved, Gilmore argues, could be better used in a general election against the sure-to-be well-financed Warner.

In a convention or primary, Davis could find himself in a tough race against Gilmore or another, more conservative candidate. Davis has spent years cultivating GOP activists, including helping to fund dozens of campaigns, but his moderate views on social issues and past support for some tax increases could turn off some Republican voters.

But Davis's odds could be greatly improved in a primary, in which he could try to galvanize moderate Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia to the polls. Many of these voters wouldn't be participating in a convention, which would force Davis to have to spend months wooing social conservatives who view him skeptically.

In a primary, Davis would view spending money as a down payment for what he would hope to be his eventual general election campaign.

By dumping millions into television ads, Davis would start defining himself and broaden his name recognition downstate. He also could start building his statewide organization.