Davis Would Benefit From Primary Format for Senate Race

Gilmore, already relatively well known, wouldn't need to spend millions on television ads in the spring to let people know who he is.

If he is forced to spend heavily to win a primary, Gilmore could be broke by early summer, just when Warner starts purchasing large television buys.

Davis supporters say they can win the GOP nomination even if the party holds a convention, although they concede the latter would be more of a challenge.

But Davis should be worried if he fails Saturday to secure a primary. The 84 members of the central committee are fairly plugged into the political realities of Virginia. If Davis can't persuade them to hold a primary, what makes him think he is going to have an easier time winning over the rank-and-file activists he needs to win a convention?

A second choice for Davis will occur after the Nov. 6 election for state legislative candidates. He is working hard to reelect his wife, Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Fairfax), who is facing a tough challenge from Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.

If Devolites Davis loses, some conservatives would use that as proof that Davis doesn't have the appeal he thought he did in Northern Virginia.

That argument is flawed. Devolites Davis very might well lose to Petersen, but it wouldn't be her husband's fault. There just might not be enough Republicans left in her district, which includes Vienna and Fairfax City, to carry her to victory against the well-liked Petersen.

In a U.S. Senate race, Davis's appeal in Northern Virginia would come from more Republican-leaning voters in western Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Besides being a great strategist, Davis is a political realist. If he doesn't think he can beat Warner, he could decide to seek reelection to the congressional seat he has held since 1994.

But even that could be a tough race. Davis's congressional district has been steadily trending Democratic. Last year, he managed to get 55 percent of the vote against an underfunded and relatively uncharismatic Democratic candidate.

If Davis is going to fight next year anyway, most expect that he would rather take his chances on a Senate race.

That would leave Davis with one of toughest questions to answer: How does he beat Warner, who left office in 2006 as one of the state's most popular politicians?

Warner is well-liked in rural and suburban Virginia. Davis would have to find a way to solidify the Republican base in rural parts of the state while keeping Warner's margins down in Northern Virginia by winning at least Loudoun and Prince William and keeping the Democrat advantage in Fairfax to fewer than 40,000 votes.

Ironically, Davis's chances could be hampered if former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, a moderate, is the GOP nominee for president.

In Virginia, about 40 percent of the electorate self-identifies as born-again Christians or evangelicals, and they vote 2 to 1 for the GOP candidate.

Will these voters be motivated to show up to the polls in 2008 if Giuliani is the GOP presidential nominee and Davis the Republican Senate candidate?

One thing is certain: Warner, who said he agonized over whether to run for the Senate, had it easy compared with the decisions Davis still has to make.