Va. Poll Gives Mark Warner Wide Lead in Senate Race

But in a possible primary matchup, Gilmore draws support from conservatives and white evangelicals, who are driving his lead of 48 percent to 29 percent over Davis among Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP.

"I don't trust Northern Virginia Republicans very much," said Janet Jefferson, 59, of Rockingham County in the Shenandoah Valley. "They tend to cave in too much to the liberals and make bargains that I don't like. . . . I believe Gilmore has good conservative values."

Gilmore says the poll proves he can beat Davis, who counters that he has "room to grow" while Gilmore doesn't.

In Northern Virginia, where Davis is better known, the congressman holds a lead over Gilmore among Republicans.

"He comes across as level-headed on a lot of things," John Polcari, 51, of Burke, said of Davis. "Gilmore, in his time as governor, he had his idea what was right and wrong and shoved them down throats, regardless of their effect."

Tomorrow's vote by the 84-member Republican State Central Committee on whether to hold a convention or primary in June could play a major role in whether Davis enters the Senate race.

At a convention, several thousand party activists would select the nominee. But any registered voter could participate in a primary, which would give Davis an opportunity to mobilize moderate Republicans and independents and get them to the polls.

Davis supporters argue that a primary would allow the eventual nominee to begin speaking to a statewide audience in the spring, at the same time Warner might begin a statewide advertising blitz.

Gilmore's backers counter that the estimated $4 million it takes to compete in a primary, compared with $1 million for a convention, could leave the eventual nominee broke by summer.

The poll suggests that the war in Iraq and the economy are the top concerns among voters at this early stage in the Senate race.

Nearly 6 in 10 in the poll say the war is not worth fighting, and a slim majority, 51 percent, wants U.S. forces withdrawn from Iraq even if civil order is not restored there.

Many Virginia Republicans believe their party's prospects against Warner would greatly improve if Clinton was the presidential nominee. But there is little evidence in the poll that Clinton would be a significant drag on Warner.

The Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 4 through 8 among a random sample of 1,144 Virginia adults, including 993 registered voters. The results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.