Nuclear Deal With India May Be Near Collapse

"It's not a strong coalition," said Michael Green, a former Bush National Security Council staff member who worked on the issue and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The nuclear pact has also encountered resistance in the United States, where many in Congress considered it a sweetheart deal for India and threatened to try to scuttle it. Critics said the agreement sets a bad example because India would win access to U.S. technology without complying with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which permits cooperation on nuclear energy only when countries pledge not to develop nuclear weapons.

U.S. experts differ on the prognosis. "I would not say the deal is dead. It's in the hospital in intensive care," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. "The reason it's in intensive care is that there is a tight timeline that the U.S. and India have to keep to follow through on all the steps."

U.S. officials said India must take the steps required by early 2008, so the administration can begin moving the deal through Congress. Any setback would almost certainly trigger further delays on actions required by both governments to keep the agreement alive, Kimball said.

Others say the pact could be resurrected if Singh challenges opponents inside his coalition and in parliament. "If Singh went to the polls on this issue, he would win," Green said. "But he would have to run against members of his own coalition to do it. And there's a nervousness about having an election."

The communist alliance, which argues that the deal would erode India's sovereignty, has urged Singh not move forward on negotiations with the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the International Atomic Energy Agency. To assuage these forces, Singh set up a joint forum in September to discuss the pact and provide a platform for airing concerns.

Last week, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee asked the communist parties to let the government talk with the IAEA, while assuring that the deal will not be final until there is political consensus in India.

But the communists rejected the formula and said they would vote out the government if it even approaches the IAEA.

"If the deal does not come through, it will be disappointing," Singh said Saturday at a summit organized by the Hindustan Times. "But in life, one has to live with certain disappointments. . . . Ours is not a one-issue government."

When asked whether Singh would call Bush to inform him of the decision, a senior Indian government official said: "I don't know if he will call. But if he does, it will be a sad conversation."

Lakshmi reported from New Delhi.