Giuliani's Conservative Support Tenuous

Real estate agent Danny Hyde poses outside his office in Canton, Ga., Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2007. Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani shares the lead among conservative voters in the Republican presidential race, despite the New Yorker's three marriages and moderate views on abortion, guns and gays. Yet a close look suggests his support from the GOP's potent right wing is less than meets the eye, according to recent Associated Press-Ipsos polls. (AP Photo/John Bazemore) (John Bazemore - AP)

While combined data from AP-Ipsos polls this month and last show Giuliani holding his own among conservatives, they also show a slender Thompson advantage among the strongest conservatives.

Of those calling themselves very conservative, the former Tennessee senator and actor leads Giuliani by 26 percent to 15 percent. Thirty-seven percent of Thompson's support comes from the very conservative, about double Giuliani's rate.

In addition:

_Just 37 percent of Giuliani's conservatives call themselves strongly Republican, compared to 52 percent of Thompson's.

_While 22 percent of Giuliani's evangelical or born-again Christian supporters say they are very conservative, 47 percent of Thompson's do.

_Sixty-four percent of Giuliani's supporters approve of Bush's performance, compared to 78 percent of Thompson's.

_Thirty-seven percent backing Giuliani attend religious services at least weekly, making him the only major GOP hopeful who gets less than half his support from people who go that often.

Interviews with Republicans surveyed and conservative leaders show part of Giuliani's allure is the tough anti-terror reputation he developed after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on his city while he was mayor.

"If it wasn't a time of war, I wouldn't vote for him" because of his social views, said Alex Dragonchuck, 24, a conservative and truck driver from Pasco, Wash. He added, "You get a couple of nukes going off on American soil, and what good is the other stuff? You've got to prioritize."

Yet many wrestle over backing a candidate who embodies their values or one they think can win the White House.

"I'm fluctuating over what the right thing to do is," said Tim Wildmon, president of the conservative American Family Association. He said Huckabee is "the best choice on our values" but seems to have little chance of winning, "So what do you do then?"

Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, a conservative working with Giuliani's campaign, said the candidate is faring well with conservatives and cannot win the nomination without them. He said as mayor, Giuliani took actions "which Christians strongly identify with," like removing pornography shops from Times Square.

Sessions also emphasized the need to attract centrists and independents to defeat Clinton, whom he predicted will be the Democrats' candidate. He said the election would be a choice between the "center-right" Giuliani and Clinton, whom conservatives "are really fearful of."

Thompson pollster John McLaughlin said he thinks conservative support for Giuliani will fade as people learn more about his moderate views.

"As voters realize they're better off with Fred Thompson as a true conservative, Giuliani's going to lose votes to us," McLaughlin said.

The three AP-Ipsos polls were conducted Oct. 1-3, Sept. 21-25 and Sept. 10-12, and involved telephone interviews with a combined 1,144 Republicans and Republican leaners. The margin of sampling error for all Republicans was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

___

AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.