Fairfax Races Seen As Crucial To Senate

The stakes are higher than simply determining the makeup of the General Assembly, Williams added. If voters demonstrate Nov. 6 that they're not happy with Republicans, the party is going to be in big trouble next year, he said, in the contest to replace U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the presidential election.

Another advantage for Democratic candidates in Northern Virginia is that the region's clout would vastly increase in Richmond if Democrats take over the Senate. For example, if he survived a tough reelection bid, Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Prince William) would become chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, gaining the power to send more money to Northern Virginia colleges and universities, hospitals, roads, cultural institutions and more.

Minority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax), Mary Margaret Whipple (D-Arlington), the Democratic Caucus chairman, Patricia S. Ticer (D-Alexandria) and Janet D. Howell (D-Fairfax) also could be in line to lead committees, meaning Northern Virginia Democrats could set the agenda in the coming years on such crucial topics as controlling growth and development, redrawing political district lines after the next census and recalculating school aid formulas to benefit the region.

"If we win, Northern Virginia's power is enhanced greatly," said Saslaw, who is likely to become the Senate majority leader if Democrats take over. "If it stays in Republican hands, we end up with zero influence."

Still, in each of the three Fairfax County Senate districts, local issues are more likely than statewide trends to decide the results. Cuccinelli, for example, has developed a loyal core of conservative supporters who are more likely to vote next month than the average Democratic voter. To a lesser extent, O'Brien has the same advantage. And Cuccinelli and O'Brien have been careful to appeal to Northern Virginia's changing demographics by supporting such measures as a ban on teens using cellphones while driving.

Cuccinelli and O'Brien also support tougher stances against illegal immigrants. Oleszek has been unclear on the issue, but Barker, aware that the issue resonates in southern Fairfax, mirrors his opponent's views.

Of the three incumbents, Devolites Davis has moved furthest to the left, yet she remains the most vulnerable by all accounts, in part because she represents the most Democratic-leaning of the three districts. Devolites Davis, the wife of moderate U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), is in a bruising race with Petersen, whom she has attacked for his opposition to gun control and his membership in the conservative Truro Church. She has even courted the gay vote in Fairfax by promising to support adding sexual orientation to laws against discrimination.

"My district has always swung to the left, even when I was in the House of Delegates," Devolites Davis said. "I have always been able to capture that independent swing vote."

Most Republicans privately worry that this time, it won't be enough. Democrats openly crow that the race is all but over, and independent observers believe that the demographics of central Fairfax might simply be too unfavorable for a Republican to overcome.

"It's a race between two talented people," said Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, of the race between Devolites Davis and Petersen. "She has the short straw on the district. The question is whether she can use her funds to convince voters to retain her even if she's not in accord with the party alignment. She's in accord with the issues. That's the sell she has to make."