Fairfax Races Seen As Crucial To Senate
Results Could Alter Northern Va.'s Clout

By Amy Gardner
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 21, 2007

There is no fiercer battleground this election season than Northern Virginia, where control of the state Senate could be largely determined by the outcome Nov. 6 of three hard-fought, high-dollar and closely watched contests in Fairfax County.

But these campaigns will do more than decide who runs the 40-member Senate. They will demonstrate whether Republicans will continue -- or can halt -- their dramatic decline in popularity in Virginia and whether that trend is likely to persist in crucial 2008, a presidential election year.

A Democratic sweep, meanwhile, would transfer unprecedented power to a handful of senior Northern Virginia lawmakers, giving the region a level of influence in Richmond on issues such as transportation, growth and education that would match its population and economic might.

And it might all hinge on Fairfax, where three Republican state senators are fighting for their political lives in districts that have rejected the GOP in the past two statewide elections and that are now, by all accounts, undeniably blue.

"This is the toughest race from start to finish that I've had," said Sen. Ken Cuccinelli II, a conservative Republican from western Fairfax battling Democrat Janet S. Oleszek, a member of the county School Board. "The Democrats' success has been driven by the leftward swing of Northern Virginia. That's where it's come from. It's natural for them to focus up here."

Democrats are indeed focusing on the three Fairfax seats, and a handful of others across the state. With Republicans in control of the Senate by a margin of 23 to 17, Democrats must pick up three seats to share power and four to control the chamber. As a result, they are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on TV ads and glossy mailings in Northern Virginia, and they are sending in such prominent Democrats as Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and former governor Mark R. Warner to promote their candidates.

No one disputes that the demographic advantage goes to the Democrats. Republican Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis's district, which includes Fairfax City, Vienna and Oakton, is so Democratic-leaning that not a single precinct voted for former U.S. senator George Allen last year in his race against Sen. James Webb. Even Republican state Sen. James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr.'s district, which includes the longtime GOP stronghold of Springfield and a sliver of Prince William County, gave Webb a 10-point win.

Devolites Davis faces Democrat J. Chapman Petersen, a former delegate and Fairfax City Council member. O'Brien faces George L. Barker, a health services planner.

All three challengers seek to portray the incumbents as out of touch with the public. They say that if Republicans retain control in the Senate, it is likely to tilt more to the right as a result of the number of conservative-leaning Republicans on the ballot this year. Republicans seeking to retain control of the Senate deny that charge, saying that a Democratic takeover would tilt the state too far left, leading to anti-business legislation, higher taxes and a death penalty moratorium.

"If the Republicans come home and the independents recognize the difference between Republican leadership and Democratic leadership and continue to break the way they've broken in the past, then we'll retain the majority," said Sen. Kenneth W. Stolle (R-Virginia Beach). "It's going to be close, but I think we'll retain the majority."

Other Republicans say it is fair to speculate that the Senate would become more conservative. They say one reason the GOP has performed so poorly in recent elections is that voters are looking for middle ground.

"It's scary for us," said state Sen. Martin E. Williams (R-Newport News), who lost a primary battle this year to a conservative Republican and whose seat, as a result, is at risk of going to a Democrat. "Certainly the perception in the public's eye is that we've narrowed our base so much that we can't claim a majority. We've got to appeal to a broader group of people than just people who will sign a no-tax pledge or be pro-life."

The stakes are higher than simply determining the makeup of the General Assembly, Williams added. If voters demonstrate Nov. 6 that they're not happy with Republicans, the party is going to be in big trouble next year, he said, in the contest to replace U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the presidential election.

Another advantage for Democratic candidates in Northern Virginia is that the region's clout would vastly increase in Richmond if Democrats take over the Senate. For example, if he survived a tough reelection bid, Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Prince William) would become chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, gaining the power to send more money to Northern Virginia colleges and universities, hospitals, roads, cultural institutions and more.

Minority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax), Mary Margaret Whipple (D-Arlington), the Democratic Caucus chairman, Patricia S. Ticer (D-Alexandria) and Janet D. Howell (D-Fairfax) also could be in line to lead committees, meaning Northern Virginia Democrats could set the agenda in the coming years on such crucial topics as controlling growth and development, redrawing political district lines after the next census and recalculating school aid formulas to benefit the region.

"If we win, Northern Virginia's power is enhanced greatly," said Saslaw, who is likely to become the Senate majority leader if Democrats take over. "If it stays in Republican hands, we end up with zero influence."

Still, in each of the three Fairfax County Senate districts, local issues are more likely than statewide trends to decide the results. Cuccinelli, for example, has developed a loyal core of conservative supporters who are more likely to vote next month than the average Democratic voter. To a lesser extent, O'Brien has the same advantage. And Cuccinelli and O'Brien have been careful to appeal to Northern Virginia's changing demographics by supporting such measures as a ban on teens using cellphones while driving.

Cuccinelli and O'Brien also support tougher stances against illegal immigrants. Oleszek has been unclear on the issue, but Barker, aware that the issue resonates in southern Fairfax, mirrors his opponent's views.

Of the three incumbents, Devolites Davis has moved furthest to the left, yet she remains the most vulnerable by all accounts, in part because she represents the most Democratic-leaning of the three districts. Devolites Davis, the wife of moderate U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), is in a bruising race with Petersen, whom she has attacked for his opposition to gun control and his membership in the conservative Truro Church. She has even courted the gay vote in Fairfax by promising to support adding sexual orientation to laws against discrimination.

"My district has always swung to the left, even when I was in the House of Delegates," Devolites Davis said. "I have always been able to capture that independent swing vote."

Most Republicans privately worry that this time, it won't be enough. Democrats openly crow that the race is all but over, and independent observers believe that the demographics of central Fairfax might simply be too unfavorable for a Republican to overcome.

"It's a race between two talented people," said Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, of the race between Devolites Davis and Petersen. "She has the short straw on the district. The question is whether she can use her funds to convince voters to retain her even if she's not in accord with the party alignment. She's in accord with the issues. That's the sell she has to make."