U.S. Planners See Shiite Militias as Rising Threat

Then, by the end of next year, the plan calls for the negotiation of an accord on a long-term strategic relationship between the two countries. Such an agreement would spell out the remaining U.S. forces' authority to operate in Iraq; senior Pentagon and military officials expect them eventually to number fewer than 50,000. It would be likely to provide for U.S. aviation and other military assets to protect Iraq's borders, as well as financial and other governmental assistance for several years, officials said.

The plan also outlines how U.S. commanders should carry out the transition as Iraqi forces assume greater responsibility for the country's security while the gradual withdrawal of combat brigades shrinks the U.S. presence.

Commanders are instructed to maintain their ability to train and mentor Iraqi security forces and to contribute air support, intelligence and other key capabilities. In addition, they must closely oversee events in regions where Iraqis are operating, either by assigning U.S. military transition teams to Iraqi units or by partnering U.S. units with Iraqi forces -- although the latter option will diminish as U.S. forces pull out. "As partnering goes away, I expect transition teams to grow," a senior military official said.

The campaign plan's recognition that Shiite extremists pose a relatively greater threat comes as rival Shiite militias have increased their attacks throughout southern Iraq in recent months, including the assassination of two provincial governors. A quarterly Pentagon report on Iraq released last month concluded that the instability in some southern provinces reflected the growing strength of the Mahdi Army, the militia of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Even so, officials said, the targeting of Shiite militias is far more sensitive for the Shiite-led Iraqi government than is the U.S. effort against the Sunni group al-Qaeda in Iraq. "When hitting on these militias, you are getting close to home for these Shia politicians . . . so it's a lot more delicate," said one military official.

In one area of debate over the plan, some U.S. diplomats disagree with military officials who think the United States should exert more influence to weed out Iraqi government and security force officials who follow sectarian agendas in how they distribute resources and whom they target.

Petraeus has a notebook in which he keeps the names of sectarian officers and officials, but he recently noted that a few of the worst offenders are now advancing reconciliation, said the senior military official.

While U.S. leaders in Baghdad revise their campaign plan, a parallel effort is underway, directed by the Pentagon and Central Command, "to execute the drawdown and mission change in Iraq," said another senior military official. This involves weighing how best to pull U.S. combat units from regions, redistribute their assigned areas of operation and decide which combination of U.S. troops, Iraqi forces and local volunteers can maintain security.

"The key thing is, as you pull a brigade out, their turf has to be reapportioned to other people. How is that done -- with more of our troops or Iraqi troops? We will have to make continual assessments of how the Iraqi army is doing and how to integrate the concerned local citizens," that official said.

Some military analysts doubt that Iraqi security forces are impartial enough to enforce the local cease-fires being negotiated around the country, and think that large numbers of U.S. troops will be needed to police such accords for at least another year. "If we are leaving and expecting the Iraqi security forces to enforce these cease-fires, we are in deep, deep trouble," said Stephen Biddle, a military expert at the Council on Foreign Relations who has advised Petraeus.

Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and other senior officials have said that they hope to continue the drawdown of U.S. forces from Iraq beyond July at a similar pace, possibly after a pause to assess the impact.

Advisers to Petraeus say that may be possible, if security continues to improve, but stressed that no decision will be made until March. "We should be able to maintain a reasonable rate of redeployment, perhaps at about the same rate as the surge brigades are redeployed," Martin said.