Poll Covers Plans To Reduce Deficit
By John Wagner and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
About seven in 10 Maryland residents favor legalizing slot-machine gambling, but just as many oppose a sales tax increase that Gov. Martin O'Malley is pushing to close a looming $1.7 billion budget shortfall, a Washington Post poll has found.
With a special session of the General Assembly set to convene Monday, the poll found a narrow majority of residents satisfied overall with O'Malley's deficit-reduction plan. Although his proposal to raise the sales tax from 5 to 6 percent is widely unpopular, several other tax increases that he is advocating enjoy majority support.
O'Malley (D) received a positive but somewhat lackluster review of his performance after nine months in office, with 53 percent saying they approve of the job he is doing and 36 percent saying they disapprove.
That is similar to approval ratings for former governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) on the eve of his loss to O'Malley last year. A year into Ehrlich's term, 62 percent of Marylanders approved of his job performance.
O'Malley aides said they were pleased with the reviews of the governor and his budget plans, citing examples of other governors whose poll numbers slid sharply when pushing tax increases as solutions to budget problems.
"We're in pretty good shape considering we've been talking about taxes for the last five months," said O'Malley spokesman Stephen J. Kearney. He said the poll showed O'Malley "well positioned to pass a fair, long-term solution to the state's perennial budget problems."
But critics of the governor seized on the lack of support for the sales tax increase. The proposal would yield more revenue for the state, about $730 million a year, than any of O'Malley's other proposals.
"The governor's proposal on the sales tax represents the lion's share of the taxes he wants to raise," said House Minority Leader Anthony J. O'Donnell (R-Calvert). "Considering that only 29 percent of Marylanders think that's a good idea before we've even had a debate, that does not bode well for his plan overall."
The poll found a widespread sense that the state budget challenge is serious. More than six in 10 characterize the $1.7 billion shortfall as a "big problem," and three in 10 consider budget and taxes the top issues.
Although a bare majority supports O'Malley's whole plan, five of the six revenue measures tested in the poll received more significant support. Only 8 percent of those polled support all six measures -- underscoring the challenge O'Malley faces in selling the plan to the legislature.
The broad support for slots at a limited number of racetracks and other locations eclipsed that in previous Post polls. About 60 percent voiced support in January 2004 and June 2006 polls for slot machines at tracks. A majority opposed placing the machines in "bars, restaurants or hotels." This time, the recommendation, which is projected to yield $550 million a year for the state, won broad approval across the state and across party lines.
Even in Montgomery and Prince George's counties, where state legislators have strongly opposed expanded gambling, residents are generally supportive.
Almost two-thirds in Montgomery and 56 percent in Prince George's favor allowing slots as part of the effort to trim the budget gap. But that support would dip sharply if slots were allowed in their counties. Only about four in 10 Montgomery and Prince George's residents would support them in that case.
African Americans are somewhat less likely than white residents to favor slots, and among blacks who attend weekly religious services, a narrow majority opposes slots as a budget solution.
O'Malley's proposal to increase the state cigarette tax from $1 to $2 a pack and to increase the corporate income tax found broad support.
Almost seven in 10 support increasing taxes on cigarettes, including eight in 10 nonsmokers and nearly four in 10 smokers. The increase in the tobacco tax is expected to yield about $170 million a year.
Two-thirds favor raising the corporate income tax rate from 7 to 8 percent, which would generate about $110 million annually.
More than six in 10 favor raising the top rates on the state income tax. Support is particularly high among lower-income groups. Those in households with annual incomes of $150,000 or higher split evenly.
O'Malley's plan would provide a modest income tax break for most Marylanders, leading to a net increase of $163 million a year for the state.
The idea is somewhat less popular in relatively affluent Montgomery, where more residents would be affected. Still a majority, 54 percent, supports the idea.
A majority supports O'Malley's proposal to extend the sales tax to several exempt services, such as health clubs and tanning salons, despite the unpopularity of the overall 1-cent increase in the rate.
House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Anne Arundel) said lawmakers have few alternatives but to raise the sales tax. No other proposal put forward comes close to raising as much revenue as quickly.
It would take a few years for slots parlors to be established and start generating proceeds. The shortfall appears in the fiscal year that starts in July, and lawmakers must pass a balanced budget under Maryland law.
As an alternative, Busch said, the legislature could cut state aid to county governments, which accounts for about 40 percent of the state general fund. But doing so would prompt county governments to raise property taxes, he said.
The poll also suggested that part of O'Malley's sales pitch -- that most Marylanders would pay less in taxes under his plan -- has fallen short.
O'Malley has said the additional costs in sales tax would be offset in a majority of cases by savings in income taxes and a proposed cut in property taxes. But only 14 percent said they think the taxes paid by their immediate families would decrease. Far more, 45 percent, said they think their taxes would go up. And 37 percent think they would pay the same amount.
The state budget picture is clearly a drag on how O'Malley's performance is judged. Forty percent of those polled approve of his handling of the state budget and taxes, and 49 percent disapprove.
There is also a sense that O'Malley's accomplishments have been limited despite his successes in the first session of the legislature, in which the Democratic-controlled General Assembly heeded the new governor's call to approve a record level of school construction funding, adopt tighter emissions standards for automobiles and pass the country's first statewide law requiring government contractors to pay their employees a "living wage."
Only 31 percent said they think O'Malley has accomplished "a lot" or "a fair amount" in his first year. By contrast, 50 percent had said they thought Ehrlich had accomplished "a lot" or "a fair amount" in his first year as governor.
A majority of those polled said they were wary about what the state would do if the special session ends without a deficit-reduction agreement.
Two-thirds are "very concerned" that the state will suspend plans to spend additional money on public schools, as it is required to do under the Thornton law. That's particularly true among women with children in public schools: 80 percent are deeply worried.
About two-thirds are "very concerned" that the state will make cuts in other programs, and nearly as many are that anxious that the state would raise taxes significantly if the governor and the legislature do not agree on a plan.
The poll was conducted by telephone from Oct. 18 to 22 among a random sample of 1,103 Maryland adults. The results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and staff writer Lisa Rein contributed to this report.
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