Olympic Trials Road Anything but Smooth

At Saturday's Olympic trials marathon in New York, predicting the top three finishers shouldn't be especially difficult because Ryan Hall, Adbi Abdirahman and Meb Keflezighi are clearly the class of the field.

But the marathon is the most demanding and variable of events, and among the most pressurized methods of selecting any athletes for Beijing. While that process and the characteristics of the top three match up well, much can happen over the course of 26.2 miles. Add to that the most talented field ever and a difficult criterium course in Central Park to make this quadrennial affair as unpredictable as it is compelling.

Hall, who ran a blistering 59-minute 43-second half marathon in Austin last January and then a 2:08:24 marathon debut in London in April, is perhaps the brightest American-born marathon star since Bill Rodgers.

"I'm just now reaching the peak of my fitness," said Hall, 25. "I've never been this excited for a race before and can't wait to get out there."

Abdirahman, 30, has competed twice in the Olympics at 10,000 meters, finishing 10th in 2000 and 15th in 2004. He ran 2:08:56 to finish fourth in the '06 Chicago Marathon, and took second to Haile Gebrselassie at the New York City Half-Marathon on Aug. 5 in 1:00:29, a personal best by 40 seconds.

You know the field is tough when the reigning Olympic silver medalist is nominally ranked third in his own marathon trials. Keflezighi certainly has the chops to win, with one of the most impressive r¿sum¿s of any American marathoner. Aside from the silver medal, Keflezighi finished third in Boston in '06 in 2:09:56, and second and third in '04 and '05 in New York.

So who possibly can compete with this formidable trio? Start with Khalid Khannouchi, 35, the former marathon world record holder (2:05:38 in Chicago in '02). Khannouchi ran 2:07:04 last year in London, but struggled in a half marathon two weeks ago in San Diego, running a modest 1:05:04. Next would be Alan Culpepper, who at 35 also is nearing the end of a fine career. But Culpepper won the '04 trials and finished 12th in Athens, an achievement overlooked amid the excitement of Keflezighi's and Deena Kastor's medals.

Army Ten-Miler course record holder Dan Browne doubled in Athens, finishing 12th at 10,000 meters and then 65th in the marathon. The former West Point cadet, 32, is coached by Alberto Salazar and fit again after years of injuries.

Dathan Ritzenhein, just 24, made a less than spectacular marathon debut last fall in New York, but has all the talent of anyone in the field and could just now be coming into his own.

In all, 134 are scheduled to run, including local runners Chris Raabe, Chris Banks, Michael Wardian and Eric Post.

-- Jim Hage

hagej@washpost.com