Session Has High Stakes for O'Malley

The governor has proposed raising the sales tax, the corporate income tax, the tobacco tax, the titling tax on vehicles and income taxes on upper-end earners. He is also pushing a modest income tax cut for most other people as well as a reduction in the state property tax rate.

He has also asked lawmakers to pass a health-care plan during the special session as well as approve his proposal to hold a public referendum next year on legalizing slot-machine gambling at five locations.

O'Malley's slots proposal, which threatened to bog down the session, got a boost Friday with the endorsement of House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Anne Arundel), who has been the legislature's most powerful foe of expanded gambling.

Still, there is no guarantee of a harmonious session, given past rancor between the Democratic leaders of the House and Senate, who harbor a mutual distrust and have different policy priorities. Both Busch and Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) cautioned O'Malley on the pitfalls of a special session, suggesting that the legislature hold off until the regular session in January to address the budget.

If O'Malley is unable to orchestrate a successful session, "it could really hurt his future dealings with legislators," said Republican consultant Kevin Igoe. "They would question his understanding of Annapolis."

Igoe and other Republicans hope that O'Malley's championing of tax increases will result in lasting political damage, regardless of the session's outcome. "If the taxes are passed and people are paying them, I think it becomes more of a burden to him," Igoe said.

He said O'Malley beat Ehrlich last year by improving on the party's 2002 performance in several counties ringing Baltimore that are home to sizable numbers of conservative Democrats. If those voters feel alienated on taxes, Igoe said, they may well be willing to vote Republican again in 2010.

O'Malley aides counter that the governor's plan would help most of those families, reducing their income and property taxes.

But his tax plans appear to be a drag on his approval ratings. Of those who disapprove of O'Malley's performance, 61 percent cited his proposals to raise taxes as the No. 1 reason in a poll released last week by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. In that poll, 46 percent said they approved of O'Malley's job performance, and 31 percent said they disapproved.

Montgomery County Executive Isiah Leggett (D) predicted that O'Malley's approval ratings will increase significantly if he wins approval of most of his proposals during the special session.

"You're in the midst of a budget crisis, and that's not the best time to be judged for a first-time governor," Leggett said. "People don't understand what he inherited."

Leggett said the public is likely to credit or blame O'Malley for the outcome of the session, whether or not that is fair. Leggett, a former chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party, said he is urging fellow Democrats to rally around the governor for the good of the party, as well as the good of the state. Having defeated Ehrlich last year, Democrats must show they can work together to get things done, he said.