Immigration, Democratic Shift Compete to Steer Va. Elections

Democratic state Sen. Charles J. Colgan, Fitzsimmonds's opponent, talks with Kathy Lord, left, and Barbara Collins on the campaign trail Saturday morning in Manassas. (Photos By Kevin Clark -- The Washington Post)

Candidates for the Virginia General Assembly entered the final sprint yesterday toward a hard-fought election Tuesday in which two major forces are likely to determine which party controls the Senate: the resurgence of Democrats in vote-rich Northern Virginia, and the Republican advantage in the emotional debate over illegal immigration.

Dozens of candidates knocked on doors, phoned voters and held rallies to encourage their supporters to go to the polls Tuesday, when all 140 seats of the legislature will be decided, as well as county and school board positions throughout the state.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, former governor Mark R. Warner and U.S. Sen. James Webb, all Democrats, traveled to southern and southwest Virginia yesterday to stump for candidates. Republicans, led by Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, gathered in Fairfax County in an attempt to stem the Democratic tide that has swept Northern Virginia in recent elections.

"I don't need to tell you that winning Fairfax County is the key to our winning the Virginia Senate and keeping strong leadership in the House," said McDonnell, referring to the fact that three of the five closest Senate races in the state are in Fairfax, where incumbent Republicans are trying to hang on in increasingly GOP-unfriendly districts.

Democrats have maintained all year that the Republicans' 23-17 majority in the Senate is in jeopardy. Although Democrats don't expect to take control of the Republican-heavy House of Delegates, they think they can gain as many as six seats. That kind of swing could give Kaine more leverage to push his programs regarding such issues as protecting the environment, finding money for an academic pre-kindergarten and reforming the state's mental health system, which has been in the spotlight since the Virginia Tech shootings in April. It also would dramatically shift power in the legislature to Northern Virginia, whose lawmakers would control nearly all leadership and committee positions in the Senate.

"Being able to get a lot of great things done over the next couple of years is at stake," Kaine said by phone from Martinsville. "Having legislators more defined by what they want to accomplish rather than what they oppose -- that's why I'm so energized by this election."

But Republicans have benefited in recent weeks from the growing intensity in the immigration debate. They have promised to block illegal immigrants from obtaining more public services and to do more to start deportation proceedings against them, particularly those who have committed crimes.

Which force prevails Tuesday -- the state's Democratic tide or sentiment against illegal immigration -- will set the tone for next year's crucial battle for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Republican John W. Warner. So far, Mark Warner is the only declared candidate, but former governor James S. Gilmore III (R) is considering a run.

Although turnout is historically light in an election without statewide candidates, Tuesday also could determine how important Virginia will be in next year's presidential contest. A continuing surge by Democrats could put the state in play in presidential politics for the first time in a generation.

If the election turns on the immigration issue, however, it could put Democrats under pressure in the coming year to appear responsive on that issue without alienating immigrants, who traditionally have made up an important part of the party's base.

"It's a tough issue to solve," said Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Manassas), who has become one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the year, in large measure because of the immigration debate. "We have to enforce our local ordinances, respond to people who complain about yards, cars. We have to try to do it but at the same time show some compassion."

Nowhere has the immigration debate become louder than in suburban Prince William County. Colgan, 81, soft-spoken and well-liked in Richmond, is the founder of the hugely successful Colgan Air and such a close friend to Sens. John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland) and H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester) that the two have crossed party lines to endorse him. Should the Democrats take over the Senate, Colgan is in line to become chairman of the crucial Senate Finance Committee, giving him the influence to direct resources for public schools, roads and cultural institutions to Northern Virginia.

Colgan enjoyed such advantages that Democrats never guessed earlier in the year that he would be so vulnerable. The change came after his opponent, Republican Robert S. Fitzsimmonds, 55, began accusing Colgan of not being tough enough against illegal immigration.

"In 32 years, Chuck Colgan hasn't introduced one bill to solve our immigration problem," a Fitzsimmonds television ad says. It goes on to accuse Colgan of opposing legislation to block illegal immigrants from voting, receiving in-state college tuition and receiving state or local benefits.

The surge of Democratic-leaning voters moving in across Northern Virginia is the other big "X factor" Tuesday. One of the most powerful examples is in the 86th House District, where Del. Thomas Davis Rust (R-Herndon) is in the fight of his life.

Rust, who runs an engineering company and is a popular former mayor of Herndon, has supported increased transportation funding and tax increases to pay for schools. But he is under attack from Democratic challenger Jay Donahue primarily because of the "R" after his name.

"If it's D versus R, I lose," Rust conceded. "If people go and look at records, I win big-time. It shouldn't even be a race."

Similarly, the three tight Fairfax Senate races have been defined by whether the incumbent Republicans are moderate or progressive enough for Northern Virginia. State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis has tried to position herself to the left of her opponent, Democrat J. Chapman Petersen, on such issues as gun control and gay rights; yesterday she promoted Petersen's recent endorsement by the National Rifle Association as evidence that he is the wrong choice for Fairfax.

Even Sens. Ken T. Cuccinelli II and James K. "Jay" O'Brien, by their own characterizations among the most conservative members of the legislature, have played up issues they think will resonate with Democratic-leaning voters in Fairfax, such as transportation funding, a ban on teens using cellphones while driving and money for mental health services. Cuccinelli faces School Board member Janet S. Oleszek; O'Brien is being challenged by health-care analyst George L. Barker.

Similar issues have dominated local races. Corey L. Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, has led the charge against elected officials he believes aren't doing enough to crack down on illegal immigration. Stewart, who faces Democratic challenger Sharon E. Pandak, has reached across the county line to poke at Gerald E. Connolly, the Democrat who is chairman of the Fairfax board, for what Stewart regards as too soft a stance on immigration.

Connolly's opponent is Gary H. Baise. He promises a tougher stance against illegal immigration than Connolly, who has stressed the policing of illegal behavior, not determining residency status.

Staff writers Anita Kumar and Kristen Mack contributed to this report. Kumar reported from Richmond.