Emergency Could Backfire on Musharraf

A human rights activist holds a sign during a rally held against Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Sunday, Nov. 4, 2007. Authorities rounded up opposition leaders Sunday after Gen. Musharraf suspended Pakistan's constitution, declaring rising Islamic extremism forced him to take emergency measures that included replacing the nation's chief judge and blacking out the independent media that refused to support him. (AP Photo/B.K.Bangash) (B.k.bangash - AP)

Joseph Biden, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urged the Bush administration "to move from a Musharraf policy to a Pakistan policy."

"President Bush should personally make clear to Gen. Musharraf the risks to U.S.-Pakistani relations if he does not restore the constitution, permit free and fair elections and take off his uniform as promised," Biden, D-Del., said in a statement.

Yet it remained doubtful that the U.S. and other Western nations _ which last week urged Musharraf to avoid authoritarian measures _ would abandon the urbane general who made Pakistan a valued ally in the fight against al-Qaida and Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The Bush administration said it was deeply disturbed by the emergency and urged a swift return to democracy. But though Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said U.S. aid to Pakistan would be reviewed, she indicated the U.S. would not suspend aid wholesale.

"Some of the aid that goes to Pakistan is directly related to the counterterrorism mission," Rice told reporters traveling with her. "We just have to review the situation. But I would be very surprised if anyone wants the president to ignore or set aside our concerns about terrorism."

Washington has provided billions of dollars in military and economic assistance since it suspended sanctions on military aid to Islamabad after 9/11.

"Those people who claim to be champions of democracy appear ready to let this go as they think he's the only one who can deliver in the war on terror," Mahmood said.

But further alienating Pakistanis already deeply resentful of the high-handed attitude of their rulers and a war on militants seen as fought at the behest of the Americans will make that job harder, and militants could exploit the political crisis to sow more discontent.

"We should also expect a surge in terrorist activities and bomb blasts by Taliban and al-Qaida elements to take advantage of the situation," the editor of the liberal Daily Times newspaper, Najam Sethi, wrote.

Musharraf, who has been targeted at least three times by militant assassins, may also face growing unease in the ranks of an army _ the main source of his power _ whose own standing is tarnished along with that of its chief.

"The army is fighting on two fronts: the war against terrorism, which it is struggling with, and a losing battle for its own image," said analyst Ikram Sehgal. "The only way Musharraf is going to redeem himself, especially with the Pakistan army, is that having got the Supreme Court out of the way, he must take off his uniform then announce in the near future free and fair elections."

A parliamentary vote is due in January but that schedule was in doubt, although Musharraf said Saturday he was still committed to a full transition to democracy. Deputy Information Minister Tariq Azim conceded Sunday that, for the moment, the elections were on the "backburner."

Elections or not, the most dogged opponents of military rule see only one solution.

"We believe that Musharraf has to be taken out of the equation and a government of national reconciliation put in place," Asma Jehangir, another prominent rights activist, wrote by e-mail from house arrest in Lahore.

"It must be backed by the military. Short of this there are no realistic solutions."

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Matthew Pennington is AP's bureau chief in Islamabad and has covered Pakistan since 2003. Associated Press writer Munir Ahmad contributed to this report.