By Tim Craig and Anita Kumar
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, November 5, 2007
NORFOLK, Nov. 4 -- Gov. Timothy M. Kaine went door-to-door looking for votes for Democratic candidates Sunday as top Republicans gathered for a hoedown during the final push of the most expensive campaign in history for control of the Virginia General Assembly.
With the seats of all 140 legislators on the ballot Tuesday, the campaign's final hours will test both parties' skills at getting supporters to the polls in what historically has been a low-turnout election.
Kaine (D) spent the day stumping for Democratic state Senate candidates in Tidewater, a critical arena this year as Democrats try to pick up the four seats needed to gain control of the Senate. After a pair of church services, Kaine joined Democratic candidate John Miller to greet lunchgoers at Steve's Steak House in Newport News, which specializes in $14 New York strip steaks.
"Can I just say hi?" Kaine asked Arlene Spencer, 70. "I'm the governor of Virginia, and I'm here with my good friend John Miller."
About 50 miles away, GOP leaders, including Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell and state party Chairman John H. Hager, gathered in Virginia Beach to rally supporters at a hoedown complete with horses, live music and a mechanical bull.
The mood was festive but reserved, with many Republicans acknowledging that national fatigue with President Bush and the war in Iraq were translating into a tough year for the GOP.
"In some people's minds, it's time for a change. . . . It's going to be a challenging day," said Sen. Kenneth W. Stolle (R-Virginia Beach), who is coordinating the GOP effort to keep control of the Senate. "It's going to be about who's energized. It all depends on who turns out."
Although both sides are now focused on grass-roots campaigning, much of the election has been about raising and spending money on negative TV and radio ads and mailings. According to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, House and Senate candidates have raised nearly $60 million, twice as much as in 2003, the last time both chambers were on the ballot.
Virginia Democrats are hoping Tuesday's elections prove the state is trending blue just in time for next year's presidential and U.S. Senate races.
Although few expect that the Democrats can gain the 11 seats needed to retake the House of Delegates, most political observers say that nine Senate races are up in the air. In all but one of those Senate races -- the matchup between Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Prince William) and Republican Robert S. FitzSimmonds -- the seat is held by a Republican.
"These races are within the margin of error. It's hard to get a feel," Hager said. "But a last-minute surge can make the difference."
Kaine, who labels Republicans in Richmond obstructionists, is teaming with former governor Mark R. Warner (D) and Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) to help get Democrats to the polls. The three will headline a rally Monday morning at George Mason University, hoping to drive up turnout in Democratic-leaning Fairfax County, where Republican Sens. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, James K. "Jay" O'Brien and Ken Cuccinelli II face strong Democratic challengers.
Republicans, who have been campaigning heavily on a platform to crack down on illegal immigration, predict that Kaine and the Democrats will come up short in their attempt to take the Senate, even though the GOP is burdened by Bush's low approval ratings.
Several GOP Senate candidates being targeted by Democrats are running in traditionally Republican areas, which could help the party's chances to retain control.
In the hotly contested race for the seat of retiring Senate President John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland), Democrat Albert Pollard is running against Republican Richard H. Stuart in a district where 61 percent of voters supported Bush in 2004. In the campaign between Democrat Karen Schultz and Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel for the seat of retiring Sen. H. Russell Potts (R-Winchester), 62 percent of voters supported Bush in 2004.
But Kaine is upbeat about his chances, in part because he says Republicans have nominated several Senate candidates who are too conservative for Virginia voters.
While stumping for Miller, Kaine noted that the Republican candidate in the race, Patricia B. "Tricia" Stall, once signed a petition advocating to end government involvement in education.
"I'm here to tell you there is not a more important race in Virginia than this one," Kaine said. "People can have different ideas, but every idea doesn't need to be represented in the Virginia Senate."
In an interview, Stolle said Kaine is "trying to scare voters into thinking there is some boogeyman out there."
During the campaign's final hours, Republicans and Democrats are adopting different strategies as they seek to get their voters to the polls.
Republicans scrapped plans for a statewide bus tour Friday after party leaders decided they couldn't justify the expense of the bus. Instead, leaders are attending a series of low-key events populated by the party faithful.
"If voters focus on the issues, Republicans will win," McDonnell said at the hoedown.
Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats have hired Jesse Rosen, a veteran Democratic operative, to coordinate Kaine's and Warner's final push before the election. On Sunday, Warner stumped for Davis's Democratic opponent, J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen, and for Schultz at separate events in Northern Virginia.
In Norfolk, Kaine spent an hour going door-to-door in the Ocean View neighborhood stumping for Democrat Ralph Northam, who is challenging Republican Sen. Nick Rerras.
"I'll have more brushes next time," Ocean View resident Keith Cannady said after Kaine and Northam interrupted his house-painting project.
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