By MAGGIE MICHAEL
The Associated Press
Wednesday, November 7, 2007; 3:41 AM
CAIRO, Egypt -- For more than 50 years, Egypt's military has been kingmaker, providing the country's presidents from its ranks. But the army is staying unusually quiet this time, as questions about a successor to aging President Hosni Mubarak surrounded the ruling party's annual meeting.
Some see the military's silence as a sign it is prepared to accept a civilian in the top post, presuming that the transition doesn't disrupt the stability in this key U.S. ally.
But its apparent neutrality will likely be put to the test in coming years, as many in Egypt presume that Mubarak's son, Gamal Mubarak _ who has never served in the army _ is a key contender to eventually become president.
Egypt's ruling party concluded its annual conference Tuesday with its traditional accolades of the elder Mubarak, who has governed unquestioned for nearly 30 years. The four-day conference also further laid the groundwork for succession _ creating a Supreme Council from whose members the candidate for president in 2011 will be chosen. Gamal Mubarak is among the council members.
Asked if the military will choose the next president, the 43-year-old Gamal Mubarak insisted the decision will be made through "a very clear constitutional framework."
"The nation will determine its next president through a set of legislative processes for succession," he said Monday.
In part, the military's stance reflects how much it has been mollified under Mubarak's rule, showered with economic privileges and run by a close Mubarak loyalist, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi. It also has been outweighed by the separate apparatus of internal security forces that keep control in Egypt.
"We have distanced ourselves from politics long ago," said former Staff Maj. Gen. Hossam Sewilam. "It's not our business," he said of the question of succession.
Joshua A. Stacher, an expert in Egyptian politics, said the military's "weight is not as direct or large as many argue."
"If the top 10 generals of the army support Gamal, the entire army will follow. And if the 10 don't, they will be fired," said Stacher, a professor at Syracuse University.
Military commanders rarely make public statements in Egypt, making it difficult to judge their stance. Some former military officers have expressed opposition to the principle of the father handing power to the son.
"It will be Mubarak's mistake of a lifetime if an inheritance of power took place," said Amin Hewaidy, former defense minister and intelligence chief.
Both Mubaraks deny any plan to install Gamal in the presidency, but few others have emerged to succeed the 79-year-old Hosni Mubarak. Another possibility sometimes mentioned, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, is in the military but does not hold the necessary positions in the ruling party.
The military also has a direct interest in smooth continuity after years of being incorporated into the power structure. Former military officers fill the ranks of posts around the country, including Cabinet ministers and the president's close staff. Mubarak's close alliance with the United States brings the military billions of dollars in American aid.
The military seized power in Egypt in a 1952 coup that removed the monarchy, and the four presidents that followed came from its ranks.
Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat, began a process of segregating the military from politics _ and Mubarak intensified it, also purging suspected Islamists from its ranks after Sadat's 1981 assassination by militants who had infiltrated the army.
At the same time, the Interior Ministry-run security forces _ including the police _ have gained greater prominence.
It was internal security, not the military, that put down Islamic militant violence in the 1990s. More recently, it has led a fierce crackdown against Mubarak's top political enemies, the Muslim Brotherhood, boosted by emergency laws that give it wide powers of arrest.
