McCain Stakes His Campaign on New Hampshire

By Michael D. Shear and Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, November 18, 2007

DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H., Nov. 17 -- John McCain's campaign caravan rolled through the North Country's first snowstorm of the year this weekend, the start of a last-ditch effort in the state that will once again make or break his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

As he began his four-day tour of New Hampshire in the state's northern tier, there is a renewed, anxious energy around McCain, who has become more aggressive in challenging his better-funded rivals and increasingly eager to highlight his military service as voting nears.

"In June, this was sort of like a death watch, and now people actually think he's got a shot," said David Winston, a Republican pollster who is not working for a presidential campaign this year.

McCain hasn't strayed far from the message he presented to voters in his 2000 campaign, offering himself up as a principled politician who will speak his mind without always testing the prevailing winds first.

This time around, however, McCain is explicitly selling himself as a man whose life and career were shaped by military experience -- culminating in 5 1/2 years in a Vietnamese prisoner-of-war camp -- that makes him uniquely qualified to lead the nation in a time of war. That emphasis is a direct attempt to build on what advisers see as his starkest contrast with former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and ex-Tennessee senator Fred Thompson.

"I think it's wonderful to have been mayor of a big city. I think it's great to have been a governor. I think it's great to have served eight years in the Senate," McCain told about 50 people who gathered at the Balsams hotel to hear him speak. "But I'll match my qualifications, my background, my experience, my knowledge and my vision. [That] is what I think qualifies me for their consideration.

"I have a background of all my life in the military, the last 24 years in national security issues," McCain emphasized in response to a question from Dave Spalding, 48, who owns a small business in Milford that recycles asphalt and concrete.

Spalding, who goes by the nickname "Skippy" and was deer hunting in the North Country when he saw McCain's bus pass by Friday afternoon, said later he may support McCain. But he added that he is concerned that the senator is too far behind in the national polls to be considered a serious contender for the nomination.

"I am a McCain believer. I'm trying really hard to be a believer," Spalding said. "John McCain, he's been there. He's done that. He's a true patriot. But is he electable? I really hope that he is."

McCain's aides insist the calculus exists for victory. The candidate has brought the bulk of his limited resources to bear here. Even during the campaign's darkest days this summer, not one of his public supporters switched sides here, and his visits to the state far outnumber those to others hosting early contests.

If McCain won here, they say, money would pour in. (His 2000 campaign raised $1 million online in one night after defeating George W. Bush, even though Internet fundraising was almost literally unexplored territory at that time.) McCain would be on the covers of the most-read newspapers and magazines, and the cable networks would provide him around-the-clock coverage. And less than a week later, they say, he would translate that momentum into a win in Michigan.

In South Carolina, which falls just a few days later, there is no clear front-runner, and victories in the two previous state primaries would make him the odds-on favorite to win the Palmetto State, his advisers insist.

From there, they envision their candidate rolling to victory in Florida and all but claiming the delegates needed for the nomination Feb. 5, when more than 20 states will vote.

"Once we win in New Hampshire, we've got to win in a few other states," political director Michael Dennehy said dryly.

His rivals -- and some veteran political pundits -- brush aside those arguments, saying McCain's campaign lost its way last spring after voter anger about illegal immigration and his support for an unpopular war devastated his fundraising and sparked a staff exodus. They argue that McCain is no longer able to replicate the magic of 2000, even in New Hampshire.

The latest polls put him in the mid-teens here, roughly tied for second with Giuliani, while Romney has led with a share of support topping 30 percent. McCain's standing has improved slightly from the summer, when he flirted with single digits in some polls.

Some voters here in New Hampshire echo that sentiment.

Steve Knox serves as the town moderator in Albany, a volunteer position that gives him the responsibility to oversee the polls on Election Day. He said he was an enthusiastic McCain supporter in 2000 and will probably vote for him again. But after watching McCain in Dixville Notch on Friday, Knox said he will do so with less excitement this time around.

"Eight years ago, he was just sweeping up everything in front of him," Knox recalled. "I just don't sense that now. There's a missing element there. You can just sense that he doesn't have that same fire."

But at 71, McCain appears to be putting all of his energy into a vigorous campaign in New Hampshire. Standing on a street corner at the borders with Vermont and Canada early Saturday, McCain watched snow fall steadily as he talked about the need to bring cheaper drugs back into the country. The next 12 hours on the Straight Talk Express brought several stops at restaurants across the state, hours talking with reporters, and two town-hall meetings.

At Howard's Restaurant in Colebrook, McCain worked the booths jammed with breakfast patrons, many of whom said they remain undecided about who they will support. Crystal Ball, the diner's owner, predicted the Arizona senator will win the nomination.

"I think he does. Yeah, I do. He's loosened up," she said. "His service to the government. He's a veteran. That's going to pull a lot of votes for him."

Still, the war in Iraq and immigration remain two of McCain's biggest obstacles, for very different reasons. While some Republicans may reward the senator for his strong argument that the war in Iraq is necessary, voters appear aware that stance could hurt his prospects in the general election. And McCain's cooperation with President Bush on immigration issues remains anathema to many Republicans.

The campaign recently devoted precious money to begin airing television commercials in the all-important -- and costly -- Boston media market, which blankets southern New Hampshire. But the senator recognizes that he cannot count on voters delivering for him again and plans a relentless handshake-by-handshake retail pitch.

"He realizes that he has to do it all over again," said Steve Duprey, a former state GOP chairman and the co-chair of McCain's campaign in New Hampshire.

With more than half of the state's residents remaining undecided, according to a recent University of New Hampshire poll, aides think voters will take a second look at McCain, particularly given residents' historic support for the senator and his brand of fiscal discipline.

McCain said he expects attacks from his rivals to increase dramatically during the next few weeks, especially if they sense that he is making progress here. His aides said the senator is ready.

"John McCain is the only candidate running who knows what it's like to be under hostile fire," Duprey said. "The challenge we will face at some point is resources."