For Democrats, Iowa Still Up for Grabs

In another positive shift for Obama, 55 percent now see him as their first or second choice, an important trend in a state where a person's second choice can matter and voters often switch their support at the last minute.

According to Democratic Party rules, candidates must draw at least 15 percent at each caucus site for the votes to count; if that fails to happen, their supporters often throw their votes to a more viable contender. In this poll, 34 percent of those voters would make Obama their second choice, 28 percent Edwards and 15 percent Clinton.

Most supporters of the three front-runners said they will "definitely" support their chosen candidate on Jan. 3. About two in 10 said there is a "good chance" that they will change their minds. That level of certainty suggests the race will continue to be close in the weeks ahead.

Voters in Iowa continue to view Clinton as the most viable of the Democrats, although her advantage is significantly smaller than it is nationally. About four in 10 Iowa voters called her the Democrats' best hope for November 2008, a quarter said it is Obama, and 22 percent said Edwards. In the latest Post-ABC national poll, 62 percent said Clinton is the party's strongest general-election candidate.

The results of the survey, conducted Nov. 14 to 18, underscore the urgency and fluidity of the contest as it heads into its final seven-week stretch. The poll was conducted by telephone among a random sample of 500 Iowa adults likely to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus; the results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Iraq and health care dominate as the campaign's top issues. A third of likely voters described the war as the biggest issue in their choice for the nominee, while 26 percent said it is health care. Ten percent highlighted the economy and jobs, and all other issues were in the single digits.

The race at the local level only somewhat resembles the national campaign. While Clinton held a 51-point lead on the question of which Democrat would best handle the issue of health care in a national Post-ABC poll in late September, she now has a narrow nine-point advantage on that question in Iowa.

And Clinton does not have a meaningful edge on the five other issues in this poll. She runs about even with Obama as the candidate most trusted to handle the economy, Social Security and the situation with Iran. On dealing with the war in Iraq, Clinton's 12-point lead from July has evaporated. In the new poll, 26 percent most trust Obama on Iraq and 23 percent choose Clinton, with 15 percent each for Edwards and Richardson.

Richardson, the only Hispanic candidate, came in fourth on many questions. But on the explosive matter of immigration, 25 percent said they trust him the most. During the Democratic candidates' last debate, Richardson gave a clear answer to the question of whether he would give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, saying that as governor he already had. The same question has flummoxed Clinton and Obama at various points.

Among all voters surveyed, 38 percent said Clinton has the best experience to be president, ahead of her rivals but lower than in July, when 50 percent said so.

Regardless of whom they support, voters reported being deeply involved in -- or at least bombarded by -- the campaign. More than half said they had already attended a campaign event. More than four in 10 had visited a candidate's Web site; two in 10 had donated money. Eight in 10 reported receiving calls from one or more of the campaigns; 38 percent have been e-mailed.

And in a sign of just how personal Iowa politics are, a third said they have spoken to or shaken hands with one or more of the candidates. Two in 10 have met one of the three leading Democrats; 3 percent have met all three.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.