2009 Governor's Race Will Be State's Litmus Test

Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, that person could emerge as an early favorite if Democrats don't have a candidate with statewide appeal.

Del. Brian J. Moran (Alexandria) and Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) are laying the groundwork to run for governor in 2009. The contest could come down to which Democratic candidate has the better strategy for winning a general election.

Deeds, who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 attorney general's race, says he would help the party win votes in southern and western Virginia.

His campaign advisers note that Democrats failed to pick up any state legislative seats this year outside of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

"It shows Virginia is still a moderate, middle-of-the-road state," said Peter Jackson, a Deeds spokesman.

In 2005, Deeds was endorsed by the National Rifle Association. He went on to win a higher percentage of the vote than other statewide Democratic candidates that year in several rural counties. But he got fewer voters in the suburban and exurban counties than the other statewide candidates on the Democratic ticket.

That's one reason Moran will say that he has a better chance of winning a general election.

"Northern Virginia voters know Brian Moran and will turn out in large numbers if he chooses to run," said Jesse Ferguson, a Moran spokesman.

But Moran is untested in a statewide campaign. Because he was born and raised in Massachusetts and now represents liberal-leaning Alexandria, Republicans could have plenty of fodder to portray Moran as out of touch with many Virginia voters.

Moran could also be burdened by voters' impressions of his brother, Rep. J ames P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.), who has made his share of controversial statements.

The big unknown about 2009 is whether Kaine-Warner fatigue will have set in and what the national political environment will be.

Since Jimmy Carter's election in 1976, whichever party wins the White House has lost the Virginia governor's race the following year.

So maybe it's best to sit back and watch the 2008 presidential campaign unfold before thinking too much ahead to 2009.