Building a Solution for Burma

The nature of the news cycle and well-meant wishful thinking lends itself to short memories -- as the situation in Burma illustrates.

The shuttle diplomacy of the U.N. Special Envoy for Burma ended last week without success ¿ if by "success" one means genuine, sustainable progress toward reconciliation and democracy. The envoy's two visits, his meetings democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, her meetings with the junta-led government, limited release of political prisoners -- all this and more will be touted by some as signs of progress and a reason for "letting diplomacy work." The problem is that it has all happened before.

The junta's very limited and uneven cooperation with the U.N. is a ruse meant to fool some of Burma's neighbors and provide a fig leaf to the others -- while conceding nothing. The generals in Burma view the envoy's mission with contempt. They demonstrated this by refusing a follow-up meeting between the envoy and junta leader Than Shwe, by refusing his offers of mediation, expelling the U.N.'s top in-country representative, and personally dressing down the Special Envoy for all his trouble. The continued arrests during and after the visits are meant as crystal clear indication of who's boss in Burma.

At this rate, the U.N.'s continued engagement will become simple humiliation. At worst, it will become complicit in the regime's ruse.

In the aftermath of the violent September crackdown on peacefully protesting Buddhist monks, most of Burma's neighbors reacted with revulsion.

Japan, which has refrained from broad sanctions against Burma, has come under domestic pressure to take a harder stand -- particularly after a Japanese journalist was murdered during the crackdown. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- representing the collective interests of 10 countries in Southeast Asia, including Burma -- has ratcheted up a four-year campaign of slowly growing public pressure. Political support is building in India for a return to a more principled support for democratic reform in Burma. And in the Philippines and Indonesia, Southeast Asia's strongest democracies, parliamentary leaders have called for the suspension of Burma's ASEAN membership.

The debate over "Asian Values" can be put to rest once and for all. The idea that Asians are more culturally suited to autocracy is roundly refuted by the reaction of Burma's neighbors. Democratic values assume different cultural contexts and unique institutions, but they are, indeed, universal.

This being the case, why does the situation in Burma persist?

There are several reasons. Burma is an independent country with a long history of self-isolation and small world ambitions. The Chinese and the Indians compete in what they perceive as a zero-sum game for influence in Burma. The Chinese are winning by a wide margin, not least because they have a have a Security Council veto with which to press their cause. ASEAN has its own interests. Going as far as it has in condemning Burma hasn't been easy. ASEAN itself is made up of everything from democracies to communist dictatorships, monarchies and military governments. Non-interference is the natural consensus for a group so constituted.

The U.S. has the clearest policy on Burma. But its clarity is greatly facilitated by the fact that it has no tangible stake. The mitigating interests it has in places such as Pakistan and Egypt are not a factor in its push for democracy in Burma. And no stake translates into no influence, even when its approach is coordinated with the EU and others.

All this adds up to business as usual -- that is, unless these pieces can be manipulated in new and creative ways.

First, the international community has to hit the Burmese generals where it hurts: arms and cash. They care far more about their own security and bank accounts than they do the nation they rule. And the only effective way to target what counts is through real action by the U.N. Security Council. The U.S. should encourage and support a Security Council Resolution -- perhaps offered by a concerned neighbor like Indonesia -- imposing an international arms embargo and freezing the assets of an expansive list of regime leaders and their supporters in Burma.