Spark in Lebanon
A conflict over the presidency could explode a political stalemate.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

FOR MORE than a year, Lebanon has been paralyzed by a political standoff that mirrors the larger contest for influence underway in the Middle East. On one side is the democratically elected government, composed of Sunni, Christian and Druze parties and supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia. On the other side, besieging the center of Beirut, is the Shiite Hezbollah movement and several local allies, which have the backing of Iran and Syria. The standoff has continued even as members of the government alliance have been picked off one by one by bombings universally understood to be sponsored by Damascus. Now comes a spark, in the odd form of a presidential election, that could tip the balance of power to one side or the other, or more likely, produce a major and possibly violent escalation.

Emile Lahoud, the current president and a Syrian puppet, completes his term at midnight tomorrow. The pro-Western alliance under Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has the votes to elect his successor in parliament, despite losing half a dozen seats to Syrian murders. (The survivors are sequestered in a Beirut hotel). But Hezbollah and its allies are denying parliament the quorum needed to hold the vote while trying to impose another Syrian nominee on the country. The Siniora forces are threatening to elect a new president on their own or allow the government to take over the president's duties; the Syrian-Iranian axis in turn threatens to name a rival administration or to make the country ungovernable. A resumption of Lebanon's 1975-1989 civil war, which killed tens of thousands and drew in the armies of Syria, Israel, the United States and France, looms as a worst-case scenario.

The Bush administration has a big stake in defending the Siniora government. A Hezbollah victory would be a boon for Iran and weaken pro-Western forces across the region. But the administration has failed to develop an effective strategy. Two senior Lebanese politicians have traveled to Washington this fall and appealed to President Bush to prevent Syrian interference in the election. But the administration is not prepared to take tough action against Damascus's dictator, Bashar al-Assad. On the contrary, it has just invited him to send his foreign minister to next week's Middle East peace conference in Annapolis.

U.S. inaction has left France as the would-be rescuer of Lebanon. Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and other senior officials have engaged in a frantic diplomatic effort to broker some kind of compromise between the two sides. The theory is that a deal that allows Lebanon to muddle along in stalemate is preferable to a confrontation that could be won by Hezbollah, especially if it turns violent. But Washington has remained aloof from the dealmaking, and the French have so far failed. If no solution appears by tomorrow, the Bush administration may find that recusing itself from Lebanon's latest crisis is no longer an option.