By Michelle Singletary
Thursday, November 22, 2007
This time of year, I try to provide advice to keep people from plunging into debt as the season of shopping madness begins.
But maybe I won't need to fuss too much this holiday. There's enough troubling economic news to help some consumers avoid overspending, right?
Let's see, foreclosures are up. Gas prices are rising. Bankruptcies, too. In the first three quarters of this year, bankruptcy filings by individuals or households with consumer debt increased 40 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute.
Auto loan delinquencies were up slightly in the past two months, according to an analyst for Lehman Brothers.
Oh yeah, let's not forget the stock market.
Share prices have taken a dive many times in the past few weeks, and investors are skittish. Worried about their investment portfolios, consumers are less likely to spend frivolously.
Home values are down, preventing many homeowners from refinancing as they did in past years. This means they can't pull out cash to rescue themselves from spending sprees. Falling home prices have put one-third of the United States in or near a recession, analysts for Goldman Sachs wrote in a recent report.
Taken together, all this bad economic news is likely to cause consumers to pull back on holiday spending. Thirty-five percent of consumers said they plan to spend less than last year, according to the eighth annual holiday spending survey commissioned by the Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association.
At least that's what they say.
The problem is that even though evidence points to a need to stockpile some savings to weather a coming economic crisis, consumers don't always follow through with their less-is-better plans.
"Our experience with this survey is consumers tend to say they will spend less than they actually do," said Bill Hampel, chief economist for the credit union association. "Many households will feel financially 'hung over' in a couple of months unless they do something about it now."
And what might that something be?
The Association of Independent Consumer Credit Counseling Agencies has come up with an interesting way to help consumers curtail spending. The association suggests you identify your shopping style. And here are the shopping styles it describes:
¿ The plan-ahead shopper. Many have already finished their holiday shopping.
¿ The impulse shopper. These shoppers don't make a list. They buy on a whim.
¿ The inspirational shopper. These shoppers also don't have a plan. They let the spirit and a good sale guide them to the right gift.
¿ The non-shopper. These consumers loathe shopping and may just pick one store to do all their gift-buying.
¿ The last-minute shopper. These shoppers may be in the most danger of spending too much because the holidays sneak up on them and they find themselves in the stores in a panic.
If you know how you shop, you can take steps to make sure you don't overspend, the credit counseling association said. Here's how:
¿ If you are a plan-ahead shopper, you may get the deed done well before the Halloween decorations are taken down. But if you're not careful, you could still overspend. Because you are shopping all year long, you may not be keeping track of what you're spending. I've also known advance shoppers who forget they purchased something and end up buying for someone again because they hid the present too well.
If you like to buy throughout the year, keep a little book listing the stashed gifts you've bought. Also tuck your holiday budget inside the spending dairy so you can keep track of what you've spent.
¿ The impulse and inspirational shoppers often can't be bothered with a budget. If you fit either of these categories, put away the credit cards and just use cash. When the money is gone, stop shopping.
¿ Non-shoppers often get so frustrated with the whole shopping experience they just buy whatever they see first regardless of price. One word: Internet. Shopping online is so easy. No lines. No crowds. Just be careful you shop early enough and lump your purchases together to save on shipping costs.
¿ Finally, I can totally identify with the last-minute shopper. I hate shopping so I put it off as long as possible. But your procrastination can make you desperate. In your desperation, you end up busting your holiday budget because you don't have the time or patience to comparison-shop. Two words: gift cards.
And if the above advice and economic data don't temper your spending, think about this: "We often see an increase in clients after the first of the year because of poor holiday financial planning," said David Jones, president of Association of Independent Consumer Credit Counseling Agencies.
¿ On the air: Michelle Singletary discusses personal finance Tuesdays on NPR's "Day to Day" program and online athttp://www.npr.org.She also has a new personal finance call-in show that airs Sundays on XM Satellite Radio, Channel 169 "The Power," at 8 to 10 p.m.
¿ By mail: Readers can write to her at The Washington Post, 1150 15th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20071.
¿ By e-mail:singletarym@washpost.com.
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