Political Intrigue, Drama Await as Primaries Are Mere Weeks Away

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, November 25, 2007

After months of intense back-and-forth in both parties, the earliest-starting race in American campaign history is now just weeks away from a six-day sequence that appears certain to put its stamp on both the Democratic and Republican nominating campaigns. With poll numbers showing the Democratic front-runners in a dogfight in Iowa and the GOP field wide open in the first contest, here's a helpful guide from the Sunday Fix to the scenarios that could alter -- or cement -- the current calculus in both party showdowns.

On the Democratic side:

- Hoping to keep the anti-Clinton vote in Iowa as fractured as possible, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ignores former senator John Edwards and trains all of her fire on Sen. Barack Obama. That could force Obama to knock Edwards down on his own, distracting him from Clinton and tarnishing his "politics of hope" image by picking on the one Democrat in the race who has been nice to him.

- Rather than shrinking to two, as expected, the Iowa field expands to four top-tier candidates with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson edging higher in the polls during the final weeks. There goes the playbook, front-runners. Do Clinton, Obama and Edwards ignore Richardson? If not, who takes the opening shot at the first major Hispanic presidential candidate, and how personal does it get?

- Sen. John Kerry and/or former vice president Al Gore -- the party's last two presidential nominees -- endorse Obama. The stamp of approval from one or both of these establishment pols assuages whatever lingering doubts voters may hold about the first-term senator's readiness. Obama wins Iowa, and the New Hampshire contest becomes a clash of the titans -- the likes of which the Democratic Party hasn't seen since . . . the last time Joe Biden ran.

On the Republican side:

- After disappointing finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, former senator Fred Thompson drops his bid for the nomination and throws his support behind his old friend, Sen. John McCain, in the run-up to the South Carolina primary. The Palmetto State was McCain's Waterloo in 2000. Can DA Arthur Branch get their attention, and turn the gloomy McCain narrative around?

- Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani goes on the attack in New Hampshire . . . against Ron Paul. Giuliani's numbers in the Granite State have flatlined of late, while Dr. No's small-government message has found a receptive host with New Hampshire's frustrated fiscal conservatives. But Paul is no Heritage Foundation fellow. He's a radical thinker, and what better way for Rudy to remind voters why they like him than to hammer on some of Paul's more controversial statements?

- McCain makes a run at Mitt Romney in Iowa, hoping to slow his momentum in the first two contests. We're talking ads, town hall meetings, the works. McCain assumes (perhaps over-optimistically?) he can place fourth or fifth in the Hawkeye State and still finish strong in New Hampshire. But if McCain can at least climb over Giuliani on caucus night, the Manchester Union Leader headline on Jan. 4 could be a lot more welcoming.

Does former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee -- the man whose upbeat, touchy-feely conservatism has vaulted him into contention in Iowa -- have a darker side?

Yes, insist operatives tied to former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander's Iowa operation in the 2000 presidential race.

Huckabee was intimately involved in the campaign as a prominent Alexander supporter and surrogate. As such, he was in Iowa with Alexander in the run-up to the Ames straw poll and, according to Dave Kochel, who managed Alexander's Iowa campaign, not only urged but helped to craft ads that suggested Texas Gov. George W. Bush was trying to buy the election.

"Despite his sunny demeanor, when the time came, Governor Mike Huckabee wrote the first negative ad of the 2000 primary season, and it was against the future Republican president," Kochel said.

Full disclosure: Kochel was a longtime adviser to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and is working for him in Iowa now. But one of the ads, "Auction," does seem, well, Huckabee-esque. It's negative, but in a folksy sort of way.

It starts off as a fake news report, with a reporter announcing, "This just in: The Iowa caucuses have been canceled. An auction is under way on the White House lawn." Then an auctioneer pipes in, "Twenty-five, now 30, now 35, 40 million bid here. . . . Sold for 50 million dollars." Alexander appears on screen and laments, "The presidency ought to be about raising children and farm prices and standards, not just raising money."

Chip Saltsman, who is managing Huckabee's campaign and served as the chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party, says Kochel is flat wrong. Any insinuation that Huckabee is the main author of ads run by Alexander, including "Auction," is wishful thinking.

"Governor Huckabee is flattered for [being] given credit for the creative efforts, but was a part of a large team which supported Lamar, who he will always hold in the highest esteem as an honorable man and mentor," Saltsman said. He said Alexander told him he had approved every ad that went on the air with his name on it.

"It looks like Governor Romney is more than happy to be the first Republican in the 2008 cycle to break Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment and attack Governor Huckabee in Iowa," Saltsman added.

Bonding Over Their Troubles

Barry Bonds gets indicted and becomes a baseball leper. He ought to run for Congress, where a little legal action isn't such a career killer. Hey, Barry, take heart: These guys are all in hot water with the feds but are still voting members of the House of Representatives and, at least officially, candidates for reelection in 2008:

- Rep. Don Young (R) -- One of the champions of the "Bridge to Nowhere," Young has been linked to at least three corruption cases, including a state probe that is winnowing the Alaska GOP.

- Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) -- Investigators are examining his ties to a lobbyist and former congressman, Bill Lowery, but Lewis says he's staying put.

- Rep. William J. Jefferson (D) -- Feeling the heat, congressman? That's New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin trying to get you tried and convicted ASAP, so he can run for your seat next November.

- Rep. John Doolittle (R) -- Under scrutiny in the Abramoff case, this California conservative has resisted calls to step aside, but some informed Republicans believe he is on the verge of calling it quits.