Analysis: Possible Mideast Push by Bush

President Bush arrives at the White House from Camp David, Md., Saturday, Nov., 24, 2007, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) (Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP)

Bush has met and talked many times with the pivotal Mideast players. But everyone from White House officials to outside observers, when asked about the highlights of his involvement, cites speeches: one on June 24, 2002, when he pledged support for an independent Palestinian state, becoming the first president to do so publicly; and one this past July 16, when he called for the U.S.-sponsored conference set for Washington and Annapolis, Md., this week.

Bush's only effort at direct intervention was brief and disappointing. It was a June 2003 meeting with Arab leaders in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, followed by the "Red Sea Summit" in Jordan. Bush presided over talks between former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas, then then-Palestinian prime minister who at the time held too little power for anything to stick.

Bush told reporters aboard his plane afterward that his role was to "ride herd" to keep the process moving.

"I show up when they need me to call people to account, to praise or to say `Wait a minute, you told me, you know, in Jordan you would do this,"' he said.

But Levy said Bush's engagement, when it has happened, has proved mostly unhelpful because it consistently has strengthened the Israelis' position over the Palestinians'. For instance, a 2004 exchange of letters with Sharon supported Israel's retention of Jewish settlements near its border and rejected Palestinian claims that refugees have a right to return to Israel.

Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for Bush's National Security Council, said the president had to try something different from the unsuccessful past strategies. He argued that Bush's decisions have been borne out, such as spurning the late Yasser Arafat so that rising Palestinian leaders could develop a relationship with Sharon and help Israelis take bold steps.

"The president has gotten involved and made speeches and had meetings and made phone calls when he knew it would do the most good," Johndroe said.

Bush has shown signs of increased personal investment ahead of this week's talks.

Last week, he phoned Abbas, now the Palestinian president, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, as well as important outside players: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who helped persuade skeptical Arab nations to attend; King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, which agreed Friday to send its foreign minister; and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Bush has scheduled separate meetings at the White House with Abbas and Olmert on Monday and Wednesday, with the Annapolis conference in between, where the three will have a joint session. Bush plans to address a State Department dinner Monday night for all the participants and is making remarks at the Annapolis session.

In his Tuesday speech at Annapolis, Bush will make clear that the Mideast peace process is a top priority for the rest of his time in office, but he is not expected to advance any of his own ideas on how to achieve that by wading into the issues that have kept the parties bitterly divided, national security adviser Stephen Hadley said Sunday.

It remains primarily Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's show, but she said Bush is committed to remaining committed. "The president and I will do what we need to do to try and help the parties get there," she said.

The invigorated peacemaking comes at a time when all three key leaders _ Abbas, Olmert and Bush _ are significantly weakened at home.

Alterman said Bush is doing both too much and too little: staging a high-profile conference without having laid the groundwork that would give it a chance. "A lot of this is stuff that shouldn't be waiting until the week before," he said.

It also is notable that even though the administration says it is aiming for a Palestinian state by the end of Bush's term in early 2009, the White House will not discuss whether Bush will continue to "ride herd" after Annapolis. It depends on whether the conference actually launches the first peace negotiations in seven years, aides said.

Levy said that though it is most likely that the latest peace effort will fizzle after Annapolis and Bush will fade back into the background, it is possible this president could "get the bug."

"This can be infectious," he said.

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EDITOR'S NOTE _ Jennifer Loven covers the White House for The Associated Press.