Mbeki's Ex-Deputy Gains In ANC Leadership Race

JOHANNESBURG, Nov. 26 -- President Thabo Mbeki's bid to win a third term as head of the ruling African National Congress suffered a serious setback over the weekend as party activists meeting across South Africa showed a strong preference for his charismatic former deputy, Jacob Zuma.

Political analysts said weeks of heavy lobbying could still tilt support toward Mbeki, or some compromise candidate, by next month's ANC national convention. But Zuma's show of strength made clear that Mbeki's support among the party faithful had waned dramatically.

"The presidency of the ANC is Zuma's to lose," political commentator Aubrey Matshiqi said.

Last weekend's provincial meetings selected nominees for party president, but more importantly they measured the support that candidates have among loyalists who will attend the decisive national convention Dec. 16-20 in the northern city of Polokwane.

The winner would become the presumptive next president of South Africa because of the ANC's dominant position in national politics. The exception would be Mbeki, who says he does not seek a third term as the country's president and is barred by the constitution from doing so. Elections are scheduled for 2009.

In last weekend's nominating contests, Zuma won five of South Africa's nine provinces, while Mbeki won four. The margins of victory were far wider for Zuma, who won 2,270 votes nationwide compared to 1,396 for Mbeki, according to news reports.

A victory next month would represent a remarkable political comeback for Zuma, a charismatic former anti-apartheid guerrilla whom Mbeki fired in June 2005, after Zuma's financial adviser was convicted of having a corrupt relationship with him. Several months later, Zuma was charged with raping a family friend.

A court acquitted Zuma on the rape charges in May 2006 and graft charges were subsequently dismissed, but corruption allegations linger. Despite repeated setbacks for prosecutors, the possibility remains that he could be charged before December's convention, complicating his possible rise to the party presidency.

The political fortunes of Mbeki and Zuma have headed in opposite directions since his firing. Many South Africans viewed the move as abrupt and the rape allegations as the product of a conspiracy to destroy him.

Zuma, whose supporters serenade him with the song "Bring Me My Machine Gun" at nearly every public appearance, also has support among South Africa's powerful labor unions and Communists, who criticize Mbeki for not doing enough for the nation's many poor people.

But Zuma's populist instincts and scant formal education deeply worry many business leaders. Many of Mbeki's allies portray Zuma as a threat to the president's legacy of cool-headed, competent governance.

The overt hostility between the two camps has prompted a search for possible compromise candidates with broad appeal and little of the baggage of Mbeki and Zuma. Among them are businessmen Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale, Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and party Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe.