Only Margin Is in Question in Russian Vote
With Party's Victory, Putin Will Gain Validation of Policies, Assurance of Future Power

By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 2, 2007

MOSCOW, Dec. 1 -- Russians go to the polls Sunday ostensibly to elect a parliament, but that order of business has been almost completely sidelined by a campaign designed and run by the leading pro-Kremlin party as a referendum on President Vladimir Putin.

The United Russia party, whose list of candidates is headed by Putin, is certain of victory in voting for the 450-seat lower house of parliament, called the Duma. The only remaining questions are the margin of victory and whether it will be sufficiently overwhelming to give Putin what he has called the "moral authority" to ensure the continuity of his policies after a new president is elected next year.

"The result of the parliamentary elections will, without a doubt, set the tone for the elections for a new president," Putin, 55, said in a televised address Thursday in which he urged Russians to vote for United Russia.

The elections, in other words, are not about who serves in the next parliament, a completely tame institution in Russian politics, but are about Putin's enduring power in a yet undefined role.

With the kind of massive majority United Russia expects, Putin can use parliament as a check on his successor should he or she deviate from his policies, destabilize the fragile balance within the ruling elite or become too comfortable in an office Putin may well return to.

The constitution prohibits Putin from serving a third consecutive term, but he can return in 2012 or earlier if, for some reason, the new president resigns.

The drive to secure a victory has led authorities to relentlessly exploit state-controlled media and harass and intimidate opposition parties into potential oblivion.

According to the most recent opinion polls, only two parties are assured of seats in parliament -- United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the weak successor of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Garry Kasparov, a chess grandmaster and dogged Putin opponent, said the elections will lead to "total domination by United Russia."

"Russia today does not correspond to even the most primitive idea of a democratic state," he said Friday after he was released from a five-day jail term for organizing an illegal march in Moscow. Russia, he said, is "an authoritarian state with a very serious tendency toward single-party dictatorship."

An increasing number of parties have echoed that view, though some reluctantly. The Union of Right Forces, for instance, had long distanced itself from Kasparov, believing that the system still afforded the group's sedate brand of opposition some room to maneuver.

But in recent weeks, the party has joined Kasparov's street protests, attacked Putin for what it sees as a developing "cult of personality," and inveighed against an electoral atmosphere that brooks no serious opposition to United Russia.

Kasparov, while welcoming any consolidation of opposition forces, has recognized the overall weakness of his position, and that of his allies.

"Materially, we are now the weaker side; we cannot dictate our game," he said. "And the rule I've learned all my life is that if your position is weaker, you must await the active moves of your opponent."

A clear majority of Russians credit Putin with overseeing a period of stability and increasing prosperity during his two terms, according to opinion polls. But the opposition says the push to convert the president's popularity into a crushing parliamentary majority is suffocating political life.

And some politicians fear that the parliamentary campaign that has just ended is a grim harbinger of the tenor of the coming presidential campaign.

Regional governors, most of whom are leading local United Russia lists, have used their powers, including control of the police, to stymie the campaigns of other parties, according to opposition parties and independent observers. And across Russia, employees and students at state enterprises and institutions have complained about being strong-armed into voting for United Russia.

More than any affection for the Kremlin, Russia's regional governors have been motivated by a fear of the consequences of failure, according to the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta. Regional governors are no longer elected by the people but are appointed by Putin, who abolished gubernatorial elections.

"For them, to ensure a decent turnout and the necessary percentage of the right vote is not a referendum for or against the president but a question of either signing their own prison sentence or being able to continue to live peacefully and remain governor," the newspaper wrote.

Said Valentina Matviyenko, the governor of St. Petersburg and a leading figure in United Russia, "I have no worries about tomorrow's victory."