Weak Free Agent Market Could Strengthen Trade Winds

You never know who is going to show up at baseball's winter meetings. Last year at the Disney World resort outside Orlando, none other than Barry Bonds himself dropped in, drawing reporters (though not general managers) to him like kids to Mickey Mouse. We can be quite certain Bonds, a free agent once again, will not repeat his fly-by when this year's meetings convene Monday in Nashville, since he has a little appointment to keep -- in a federal courtroom in San Francisco -- at the end of the week.

But there is plenty of room for surprises, even though many of the biggest plot lines of this offseason -- Alex Rodriguez's return to the New York Yankees, Bonds's indictment on perjury and obstruction charges, Joe Torre's move from the Bronx to Chavez Ravine and Torii Hunter's signing with the Los Angeles Angels -- have already reached their conclusions.

What is left? Trades, that's what. A decidedly weak free agent market, coupled with an unusual situation in which some of baseball's richest teams (the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels) have some of the deepest farm systems, has made this the hottest trade market in recent memory.

Among those who could be dealt in Nashville this week are the consensus best pitcher on the planet (Minnesota's Johan Santana) and the best under-25 slugger in the game (Florida's Miguel Cabrera).

"I think trades are going to upstage free agents, because almost everyone feels it's their best chance to improve their club," said Atlanta Braves General Manager Frank Wren, whose team launched the first major deal of the offseason by sending shortstop Edgar Renteria to Detroit. "But teams are also trying to hold on to their young players, so it's not that easy to get deals done. It's going to take a lot of hard work."

Here, then, is an early look at what to expect when 30 GMs, dozens of agents and -- who knows? -- perhaps a mystery guest or two convene at the Opryland Hotel on Monday:

The Nationals

Our local nine has committed to raising its $38 million payroll from a year ago as it opens a new ballpark, but if anything that figure has gone down, after Friday's trade of veterans Brian Schneider and Ryan Church to the New York Mets for center fielder Lastings Milledge.

That gives Stan Kasten, Jim Bowden & Co. even more cash to spend, although they still insist they will not be signing any major free agents. While it appears almost no one on the roster is immune to being involved in trade discussions, the most likely Nationals to be dealt remain the same as at last winter meetings -- relievers Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch.

The market for closers went up significantly when former Milwaukee Brewer Francisco Cordero signed a four-year, $46million deal with Cincinnati. That leaves the Brewers as one of several teams that might be willing to pay a price for an established closer, such as Washington's Cordero (no relation), given that the free agent options are slim.

But the Nationals' moves could branch out beyond the names that have annually filled the rumor mill. There are indications that the club's baseball operations side was willing to pursue free agent second baseman Luis Castillo earlier this month. That would perhaps indicate a willingness to part with infielder Felipe Lopez, whom club officials believe underachieved last year. Lopez is arbitration-eligible and will receive a raise from his $3.9 million salary last year.

The Santana Sweepstakes

How rare is it for the best pitcher in baseball to get traded in the prime of his career? So rare, we can't think of another example in recent history (although Pedro Martinez in 1997 and Steve Carlton in 1972 come close).

But it's about to happen, once the Twins pull the trigger on a deal to either the Red Sox or Yankees -- with a handful of other teams, including the Dodgers and Mariners, also believed to be dark-horse possibilities -- and once that team gets Santana to agree to a contract extension that could make him the game's first $150 million pitcher.