U.S. Finds That Iran Halted Nuclear Arms Bid in 2003

If Iran were to proceed with a weapons effort, it would not be carried out at known facilities, the officials said, adding that they do not believe Iran is enriching uranium at an undeclared facility.

Congressional leaders of both parties had been pressing the director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, for the report for months, and some had worried that the delay was the result of the administration's efforts to influence the final result. Those concerns appeared to dissipate yesterday, when the report contradicted not only the administration's views but also the intelligence community's previous assessments -- evidence, to many observers, of the intelligence agencies' new willingness to question assumptions and assert their independence from policymakers.

"The key judgments show that the intelligence community has learned its lessons from the Iraq debacle," said Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), who chairs the Senate intelligence committee. He was referring to long-standing Democratic allegations that intelligence on Iraq was skewed to help promote the administration's desire for war.

In this case, Rockefeller said, "it has issued judgments that break sharply with its own previous assessments, and they reflect a real difference from the views espoused by top administration officials."

While concluding that Iran's weapons program is now halted, the NIE presents a mixed view of Tehran's nuclear ambitions. It portrays Iran's ruling clerics as susceptible to international pressure, having abandoned an extensive and costly covert nuclear program in the face of threatened economic sanctions and global censure.

But the report also depicts Iran as cleverly preserving its options, by making steady strides toward a civilian nuclear energy capability that both complies with international law and puts the country on a course that will allow it to easily develop nuclear arms if it so chooses.

The report also states more confidently than in previous assessments that Iran's military had been actively seeking to build a bomb. Iranian armed forces were "working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons" until the fall of 2003, it says.

The assessment, under preparation for more than 18 months, was completed on Tuesday and President Bush and Vice President Cheney were briefed on Wednesday, intelligence officials said. Hadley said Bush first learned in August or September about intelligence indicating Iran had halted its weapons program and was advised it would take time to evaluate.

Several participants said there was strong debate among analysts during the process, but in the end they agreed on nearly every judgment. A majority of the intelligence agencies assessed, with high confidence, that the closure of the military program marks the end of the weapons effort. The Energy Department and the National Intelligence Council said gaps in what they know make them conclude only with "moderate confidence" that efforts remain on hold.

The State Department's bureau of intelligence and research judged Iran to be slightly further away from producing enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb.

Last year, Congress required that key judgments from the NIE be declassified. McConnell said in November that he had no plans to issue an unclassified version, but officials said the dramatic shift in the assessment convinced him otherwise. "Since our understanding of Iran's nuclear capabilities has changed, we felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available," Donald Kerr, principal deputy director of national intelligence, said in a statement.

Staff writers Walter Pincus, Peter Baker and Robin Wright and staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.