Nats Get Their Man in Dukes. So Now What?

Five years of stats don't lie. They don't even fib. Dukes is a decent power-hitting prospect. That's all. If he had a perfect attitude, you might like his chances. But if this guy so much as jaywalks the Nats must release him immediately.

Not primarily because he's a bad person. Maybe he is. Maybe he's redeemable. Certainly the childhood he endured and the size of the pain he must somehow defeat is enormous.

No, the reason the Nats must cut their losses the instant Dukes repeats any past patterns is because his proven baseball talent is not close to the level that could, even in theory, justify squandering the franchise's reputation in Washington. When you only hit .284 with 45 homers in 1,486 minor league at-bats, then bat .190 with 21 RBI in 184 at-bats last season in Tampa Bay, you're not a superstar prospect. Alex Rodriguez blew up three bush leagues and made the majors in one year at 18.

At the plate, Dukes looks fabulous with his short stride and long extension that launches outside pitches for miles. And he has a decent batting eye. But his swing has holes, he still loses patience; then he goes on strikeout binges and loses his confidence. Such players have to earn everything they get in the big leagues. When an ump says, "Strike three," go back to the dugout, study the tape and figure out why he was right, you were wrong and how to hit that pitch next time.

You don't have to look far to find a current big leaguer with almost identical minor league statistics to Dukes: the Nats' Austin Kearns. The hard-nosed, model-attitude, smooth right fielder is exactly the quality of player that Dukes, in his dreams, should hope to become someday. In 1,484 minor league at-bats, Kearns hit a third more homers than Dukes, drove in 33 more runs, batted higher, got on base more and then, as a rookie with the Reds, hit .315 and, unlike Dukes, didn't get kicked off the team.

This comparison should actually inspire Dukes, not make him feel disrespected. Kearns isn't an all-star but, by next season, he'll have earned $10 million in the majors and, as important, has the respect of everyone who's ever played with or against him.

"Manny Acta always says Kearns is his favorite player," Kasten said.

The Nats probably went a bridge too far in trying to save Dukes. But they've crossed it now. Don't bother to wish the team luck. All they have to do to solve any problem with him is say "Goodbye." As for Dukes, wish him luck if your heart is soft. Or better yet, stick with tough love and make him earn every single thing he gets.