As N.H. Primary Nears, Clinton Clings to Narrow Lead

In a Post-ABC Iowa poll last month, Clinton had a significant advantage on only one of six issues tested. Another contrast to the Iowa poll, where Clinton and Obama split female voters about evenly, is that in New Hampshire she has a double-digit lead among women.

While Clinton outpaced Obama in the new poll among female voters, 39 percent to 27 percent, the two candidates drew about the same level of support from men (Obama 31 percent, Clinton 28 percent).

Women have also been central to Clinton's front-runner status in national polling. In the most recent Post-ABC national poll, she had a 32-point advantage among women and a more narrow margin among men. Overall, Clinton has maintained double-digit leads in national polling since the beginning of the campaign, although some polls have reported modest slippage.

In New Hampshire, Clinton's being a woman appears to be net positive. Although most said gender is not a factor in their vote, two in 10 said her opportunity to be the first female president makes them more likely to vote for her, and that number spikes among unmarried women. Three percent of all voters said it makes them less likely to back her.

Clinton leads among self-identified Democrats, who backed her by 41 percent to 26 percent over Obama. Independents divided 31 percent for Obama and 27 percent for Clinton. Nearly eight in 10 of self-described independents are not registered with a major party, allowing them to participate in either primary. In this poll, about six in 10 undeclared voters said they would opt for the Democratic ballot if the election were held today.

As in Iowa, Obama does better among voters under age 45 than among those 45 and up, while Clinton does substantially better among older voters. Clinton bested Obama by better than 2 to 1 (44 percent to 21 percent) among those 65 and older. She has a big lead among voters with annual household incomes below $50,000, and she and Obama run about even among those with higher incomes.

The biggest advantage Clinton takes into the final stretch may be that 53 percent of her supporters in New Hampshire said they will "definitely" back her in January, and nearly six in 10 said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting for her. Far fewer of Obama's or Edwards's supporters are that committed or excited about their top candidate.

New Hampshire's electorate is well known for late shifts in sentiment. About half of likely Democratic voters said they could change their mind before the Jan. 8 primary.

Clinton's New Hampshire team is working to insulate her from a possible loss in Iowa, and the deep roots that she and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, have put down in New Hampshire over the past 16 years appear to provide her a foundation that her rivals do not enjoy. By a 17-point margin, voters said she is the candidate who has campaigned the hardest in the state.

The poll was conducted by telephone among a random sample of 592 New Hampshire adults likely to vote in the Democratic primary. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Error margins are higher for subgroups.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.