Clinton Team Turns Iowa Focus to Women

Senior Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand argued that the Clinton logic is wrong, because it is based on "the assumption that women voters are going to support Hillary Clinton because she's a woman. That's not how voters make up their minds."

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Women represent six out of 10 likely voters in the Democratic caucuses, according to the most recent Des Moines Register survey. They are about evenly split between Obama and Clinton, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted in mid-November. Among women likely to vote in the Jan. 3 Democratic contest, 32 percent supported Obama, 31 supported Clinton and 19 percent supported Edwards.

Without question, gender is helping Clinton with some female voters. James and Mary Norton of New Hartford, Iowa, describe themselves as strong Clinton supporters but were attending a recent event with Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.). "I like him a lot," James Norton said, before his wife quickly piped in, tugging at his sleeve, "Yes, but we want a woman to have a chance."

But many other Iowa women, while also viewing the senator's presidential bid as historic and inspiring, do not consider the gender factor to be reason enough to vote for her.

"It would be wonderful to have a woman in the White House. It's been way too long," said Ferol Menzel, vice president for academic affairs at Wartburg College in Waverly, Iowa.

But perhaps Clinton is not the right woman, Menzel added. "We certainly know there's an animosity toward the Clintons that will probably be a factor," she said. "Which is a shame, because she's a bright woman and could do the job. But I really want a Democrat to be elected."

Chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn said the division in the polls among women reflects their tendency to make a decision late -- though he conceded the Winfrey weekend would bring the Illinois senator plenty of attention.

"I think they're going to have some really terrific events with Oprah," Penn said. "I think the big question really is, does Senator Obama have the experience, compared to Hillary Clinton? And I don't know how that's going to really change that. I think, at the end of the day, she will get more women than anybody else, and I think she will because I think Iowa women will break late for her."

Perhaps most worrisome for Clinton is the possibility that women are looking for more than experience or promises to mend gender-based inequities such as wage disparity. The group Women's Voices Women Vote, which targets the broad category of unmarried women who constitute nearly half the female electorate, just completed a survey that shows women to be motivated by Clinton's candidacy but more driven by a desire to bring about change -- which would appear to mesh with the Obama message.

"Their intensity around that is much greater," said Page S. Gardner, founder of the nonpartisan group. "They have a desire to get out and change the way this country is governed. That's the number one goal. Their desire for change and their desire to participate in that change -- we have never seen numbers like this."

Ruth Lux, 59, a medical secretary in Carroll, should be a prime Clinton voter. And for a time, she was.

"When Bill Clinton was president, I couldn't wait until she ran," Lux said. But the intense campaign in Iowa has changed her mind. She now thinks Clinton cannot win nationally, and perhaps should not.

"Electability is a big issue. She's polarizing," said Lux, who favors Obama. "I just think Obama has broad appeal to independents and some Republicans. I think he's viewed as more conciliatory and a bridge builder and he can cross the blue-red divide."

But Lux's move away from Clinton brings her no joy.

"I'm actually surprised at myself that I'm not wholeheartedly supporting Hillary," Lux said. "It grieves me as a woman."

Staff writers Peter Slevin in Des Moines and Krissah Williams in Washington and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta in Washington contributed to this report.