An Ohio Republican's Path to Congress No Longer Looks So Smooth

When state Rep. Bob Latta won the Nov. 7 Republican primary in Ohio's 5th District, most of the political world assumed he would be the district's next congressman.

After all, President Bush won the seat with 61 percent in 2004; Latta's father, Delbert, had held the seat for 30 years; and Republican Rep. Paul Gillmor, whose death earlier this year triggered the special election, had won reelection with 57 percent in 2006.

But, in advance of Tuesday's vote, both national parties are spending heavily on the seat, and private polling suggests that Democrats could pull off a huge upset.

What happened?

As always in politics, it's never one thing. Here are a few factors: The state Republican Party has collapsed in the wake of the scandal-plagued gubernatorial administration of Bob Taft; Latta was bloodied by an incredibly nasty primary, and Democratic nominee Robin Weirauch has tapped into a strong protectionist sentiment in this northwestern Ohio district.

"The special elections of 2007 are confirming what we have been saying all along, which is that we are in the midst of a political crosscurrent that has made for a volatile political environment for both parties," said Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The NRCC has put its money where its mouth is. As of Friday, the committee had spent $383,000 on independent expenditures in the district -- more than 10 percent of the total amount the committee had in the bank at the end of October.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending as well -- $245,000 as of Friday. The majority of that spending is on ads produced by former DCCC executive director John Lapp that seek to tie Latta to Taft, a message that even Republicans acknowledge packs a punch in a state still reeling from the problems of the previous administration.

Republicans are hitting back with force, attacking Weirauch for support of a health-care plan that would offer coverage to illegal immigrants. "She supports a government-run health-care plan that covers illegal immigrants by raising taxes on your hard-earned dollars," says the narrator of the NRCC ad.

Despite the heavy spending, strategists for both parties sought to play down expectations in advance of the vote. Republicans noted that Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) carried the 5th District in 2006. Democrats pushed back, arguing that the very fact that House Republicans are being forced to spend from their very limited war chest is a victory.

Should Latta lose, which remains unlikely, it would be a powerful symbolic blow for House Republicans seeking to reassure their members that 2008 won't be a repeat of 2006.

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