Russia's Next President
Vladimir Putin makes his choice, unconstrained by democracy.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S designation of Dmitry Medvedev as Russia's next president yesterday is likely to be welcomed with relief by many in the West, if only because some of the alternative scenarios in the Kremlin's opaque succession drama looked worse. Mr. Putin will honor Russia's constitution, with its two-term limit, and step down in March. His chosen successor, a deputy prime minister who heads the giant Gazprom energy company, is thought to be more liberal and friendly to the West than other possible nominees. Unlike Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Mr. Putin himself, Mr. Medvedev is not a former operative of the KGB.

Mr. Medvedev's abrupt and somewhat surprising elevation yesterday nevertheless served to confirm, again, that Russia has returned to a political system in which all major events flow from the whims of one man. Last week's Russian parliamentary election was meaningless compared with Mr. Putin's choice of Mr. Medvedev, who will be presented to voters March 2. The political suspense in Moscow concerns not whether the nominee will be elected but what role Mr. Putin will play in the new regime. That, too, will be revealed only by Mr. Putin, at a time and place of his choosing. Will he be prime minister? Head of Russia's security council? A dominating presence without an official portfolio, in the style of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping?

Whatever the outgoing president's decision, there seems to be little prospect for change in Moscow's increasingly belligerent policies toward its neighbors or its suppression of internal dissent. Mr. Medvedev, 42, has been a sycophantic follower of Mr. Putin since he began serving with him in the municipal government of St. Petersburg 17 years ago; he's even copied his master's sartorial trademark of turtleneck sweaters. As chairman of Gazprom, Mr. Medvedev spearheaded Mr. Putin's attempts to blackmail and bully Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and other neighbors dependent on Russian gas supplies -- not to mention Western energy companies that invested in Russia.

If there's a glimmer of hope for a return to the democratizing Russia that Mr. Putin inherited eight years ago, it lies in Mr. Medvedev's relative youth and the hierarchical nature of Russian power. Whatever his intentions, Mr. Putin could find it difficult, over time, to control a successor granted far-reaching powers by the constitution. If Mr. Medvedev has ideas of his own for Russia, he may eventually be tempted to pursue them. The West can only hope that the new president has more interest than his current boss and his ex-KGB clique in building a free society.