Rigged Vote Is Widely Expected in Pakistan

Experts Warn of Renewed Chaos if Parliamentary Elections Are Not Free and Fair

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- With less than a month to go before parliamentary elections in Pakistan, independent experts say that there is little chance the polls will be either free or fair -- and that the result could be renewed tumult across the country.

In ways both large and small, observers say, Pakistan's government has already tilted the balance in favor of parties loyal to the nation's deeply unpopular president, Pervez Musharraf.

Journalists operate under severe new restrictions, Supreme Court judges who previously challenged Musharraf are off the bench, and presidential loyalists occupy top election-oversight jobs. Experts also consider the voting process to be highly susceptible to fraud.

"The die has already been cast against the opposition," said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, executive director of the nonprofit Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency. "The elections are going to be rigged. The only thing that remains to be seen is how extensive that rigging will be."

Mehboob and others warned about the consequences of any rigging. "A rigged election would push Pakistan toward chaos," said Zafarullah Khan, executive director of Pakistan's Center for Civic Education.

The major opposition parties, which considered and rejected the idea of boycotting the elections, are already looking beyond the Jan. 8 vote to Jan. 9. That, they say, is when they intend to take to the streets in protest if they feel they have been cheated at the polls.

"We're wishing for free and fair elections. But if not, we'll start the movement to dethrone Musharraf," said Farhatullah Babar, spokesman for former prime minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

A protracted street battle for control of Pakistan is just the sort of scenario the United States is hoping can be avoided. Washington has pushed hard for opposition parties to participate in the elections, believing that they can be a healing force in Pakistan after months of political uncertainty and protests.

Last week, Assistant Secretary of State Richard A. Boucher told a congressional panel that, while the elections would not be perfect, "they can have a good election. They can have a credible election. They can have a transparent election and a fair election."

But few in Pakistan share that optimism, apart from Musharraf. The president on Sunday went so far as to guarantee free and fair elections. He accused the opposition of crying foul before a single ballot had been cast.

"We haven't even gone for elections and they are talking of rigging and everything," the former army general said in an interview broadcast on CNN. "This is a clear indication of their preparation for defeat. Now when they lose, they'll have a good rationale, that it is all rigged, it is all fraud. In Pakistan, the loser always cries, and that is an unfortunate part."

While the elections are for Parliament, not for president, the stakes for Musharraf are high: Opposition parties have vowed to seek his impeachment if they gain enough seats. Some of Musharraf's leading critics want to restore the Supreme Court judges that he fired, then charge him with treason for his decision last month to suspend the constitution and declare emergency rule. In Pakistan, the penalty for treason is death.