A Costly Shuffle

If the economic consequences are questionable, the transportation consequences are not.

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Thousands of jobs are moving from such close-in locations as Crystal City and Rosslyn to outlying areas with limited public transit. "Those jobs are now in places served by Metro and bus services, whereas Belvoir doesn't lend itself to Metro and buses," Carr said.

One 2005 study estimated that 84,900 daily car trips would be added to the area's highways by 2015.

Myriad road projects are needed to accommodate the altered traffic flow.

Fairfax County officials estimate that up to $1.5 billion in transportation improvements are needed at Fort Belvoir, including finishing the Fairfax County Parkway connector. In Maryland, transportation officials say $300 million is needed to rebuild a five-mile stretch of Route 175 by Fort Meade, among other projects. Montgomery County officials are pressing the state for more than $70 million in projects to widen Wisconsin Avenue and improve other roads to accommodate a doubling in visitors to the Bethesda hospital.

Even so, major road projects can take eight to 12 years to come to fruition, including planning, budgeting and construction phases, Maryland's Porcari noted.

Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown (D), who is leading a study of BRAC's impact, will present a final action plan Monday and make recommendations this month for projects that should be added to the state budget. Like Virginia leaders, he is counting on the federal government for help.

"The congestion is real," said Moran, whose congressional district includes Fort Belvoir. "If the federal government is putting 20,000 people into an area that's congested, it's not unreasonable to expect the federal government to do something about it."

Officially, the Army and Navy have no obligation beyond improvements within the base, but federal law allows the military to pay its fair share for roads certified as necessary for national security. Several projects near Fort Belvoir have received that certification.

Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), who has joined his state colleagues in pressing for federal aid, said Maryland and other jurisdictions will have to shoulder the majority of the load.

"The state competed strenuously to have this BRAC result," Hoyer, the House majority leader, said in an interview. "We're not in a position to say the federal government imposed something on us."

It is instructive to remember, some lawmakers say, that the area could easily have ended up losing jobs, as happened to many communities across the country.