Giuliani Campaign Warms Up to Florida

Lagging in Early-Voting States, He Hopes State Will Propel Him Into GOP Lead

TAMPA -- The current center of the political universe is Iowa, as presidential candidates from both parties are spending millions and braving the winter weather in the struggle to win its first-in-the-nation caucuses.

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But former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has been largely absent from the scrum of candidates there. On Saturday, he delivered a major speech to supporters in balmy central Florida -- more than 1,300 miles from ice-packed Des Moines.

"I don't pray for miracles," he told the crowd in the speech, dubbed by aides as the "closing argument" for his presidential campaign. "I don't just hope for miracles. I expect miracles."

He was not referring to his White House bid, which appears to be moving backward in the critical early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nationally, his lead has dwindled from 30 points to two or three in some recent polls.

Earlier this year, Giuliani vowed to compete vigorously in Iowa. An internal PowerPoint presentation prepared for his staff in the summer declared that "Iowans are just getting to know Rudy, and they like what they see."

Now he has all but abandoned his public efforts there. In the past two weeks, he has traveled to North Carolina, Florida (three times), Illinois, California and Oklahoma, holding fundraisers and small meet-and-greets in states that won't vote until February. He made only a brief stop in Iowa for last week's presidential debate. And Monday he is headed back to New Hampshire for the first time since Dec. 2.

In New Hampshire, where Giuliani once hoped to post a strong showing among independent voters, the campaign's efforts have petered out as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) have risen above the GOP crowd. Surging former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is also paying more attention to the state.

It is Florida, home to "snowbirds" who have escaped the bitter cold of the Northeast, where the New Yorker plans to make his stand for the nomination.

"You want to be there for, you know, Florida at the end of the month -- big state," Giuliani explained to a skeptical Tim Russert on NBC's "Meet the Press" last week. In Florida, he told Russert, "the latest poll was a 16- to 18-point lead. And we've had a lead there of that magnitude pretty much throughout."

Senior Giuliani advisers are confident that a convincing victory in Florida on Jan. 29, followed by a dominant performance in the 22 states voting a week later, will vault their candidate back into the lead. "Florida is an important state for us, and we're going to win Florida," a top strategist said. "Everything up to Florida, we'd of course like to do well in as well."

The question for Giuliani is whether he can survive a series of losses before the campaign even gets to Florida on Jan. 29 -- losses that seem more likely now than when his campaign advisers hatched their "national, late-state strategy" this year. As a result of his absence, Giuliani is a distant third in polls in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and fourth in South Carolina.

His rivals, including Romney, are betting that voters won't have patience.