Giuliani Campaign Warms Up to Florida
Lagging in Early-Voting States, He Hopes State Will Propel Him Into GOP Lead

By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 17, 2007

TAMPA -- The current center of the political universe is Iowa, as presidential candidates from both parties are spending millions and braving the winter weather in the struggle to win its first-in-the-nation caucuses.

But former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has been largely absent from the scrum of candidates there. On Saturday, he delivered a major speech to supporters in balmy central Florida -- more than 1,300 miles from ice-packed Des Moines.

"I don't pray for miracles," he told the crowd in the speech, dubbed by aides as the "closing argument" for his presidential campaign. "I don't just hope for miracles. I expect miracles."

He was not referring to his White House bid, which appears to be moving backward in the critical early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Nationally, his lead has dwindled from 30 points to two or three in some recent polls.

Earlier this year, Giuliani vowed to compete vigorously in Iowa. An internal PowerPoint presentation prepared for his staff in the summer declared that "Iowans are just getting to know Rudy, and they like what they see."

Now he has all but abandoned his public efforts there. In the past two weeks, he has traveled to North Carolina, Florida (three times), Illinois, California and Oklahoma, holding fundraisers and small meet-and-greets in states that won't vote until February. He made only a brief stop in Iowa for last week's presidential debate. And Monday he is headed back to New Hampshire for the first time since Dec. 2.

In New Hampshire, where Giuliani once hoped to post a strong showing among independent voters, the campaign's efforts have petered out as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) have risen above the GOP crowd. Surging former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is also paying more attention to the state.

It is Florida, home to "snowbirds" who have escaped the bitter cold of the Northeast, where the New Yorker plans to make his stand for the nomination.

"You want to be there for, you know, Florida at the end of the month -- big state," Giuliani explained to a skeptical Tim Russert on NBC's "Meet the Press" last week. In Florida, he told Russert, "the latest poll was a 16- to 18-point lead. And we've had a lead there of that magnitude pretty much throughout."

Senior Giuliani advisers are confident that a convincing victory in Florida on Jan. 29, followed by a dominant performance in the 22 states voting a week later, will vault their candidate back into the lead. "Florida is an important state for us, and we're going to win Florida," a top strategist said. "Everything up to Florida, we'd of course like to do well in as well."

The question for Giuliani is whether he can survive a series of losses before the campaign even gets to Florida on Jan. 29 -- losses that seem more likely now than when his campaign advisers hatched their "national, late-state strategy" this year. As a result of his absence, Giuliani is a distant third in polls in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and fourth in South Carolina.

His rivals, including Romney, are betting that voters won't have patience.

"What would happen to him in Florida if Floridians saw he couldn't connect to people in early states at all?" Romney asked in an interview with the Politico. "That would change the dynamics."

Todd Harris, chief spokesman for former senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.), said of Giuliani: "His whole late-state strategy has taken himself out of the [campaign] narrative, except negative stories. That's a very, very dangerous proposition."

But Giuliani's campaign may not have a choice. Huckabee's surprising surge has wounded Romney, but it has also pushed Giuliani further behind in the early states. His campaign is ramping up its operation in Florida and is scheduling repeated visits by the former mayor throughout January. Giuliani has 15 paid staff members and four offices in the Sunshine State.

Leading his effort there is Karen Unger, a top aide to former governor Jeb Bush and manager of Bush's 2002 reelection campaign. In an interview as Giuliani traveled from Tampa to Jacksonville, Unger said the pressure to win in Florida is intense.

"We're ready for it," she said. "We know we have a lot of responsibility, but we have accepted it and embraced it. We are confident that we are going to win Florida."

The campaign has not yet started advertising in the state's pricey television and radio markets, though those efforts will begin soon, Unger said. And it has not yet begun mailing to Florida's 4 million registered Republicans.

But Unger said thousands of volunteers have been making telephone calls for weeks, hoping to identify voters who support Giuliani. She said last week, with 96,000 phone calls, was "a slow week" because of the upcoming holidays.

"His record of accomplishment in New York is one that resonates here," she said, citing the many retired New Yorkers who live in Florida and are familiar with Giuliani's tenure as mayor. "They can speak firsthand to the effectiveness of his leadership."

Some top strategists for his GOP rivals say Giuliani is craftily hedging his bets in Iowa and New Hampshire in the hopes of pulling out a surprise second- or third-place showing. He maintains a staff in both states, and in Iowa he has sent to likely Republican voters dozens of campaign mailers touting his strengths.

In one, he says: "I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders and identify every non-citizen in our nation." In another, he writes that "we have to be on offense -- that's what I learned from September 11th and from the history of the 20th century."

But talk of competing "100 percent" in Iowa and New Hampshire is largely gone. If Giuliani wins the nomination, he will probably have to do it in a way that no candidate ever has -- going without a victory for almost a month.

"It's as if the February 5th strategy has hardened like concrete around their feet and they can't move," said Kevin Madden, a Romney spokesman, in a hopeful tone. "Right now they are stuck, just waiting for the calendar to save them."