One-Two Punch To Area's Budgets

"We can't just continue to afford a Cadillac level of service," said then-Supervisor Gerald E. Connolly (D-Providence), who would become board chairman in 2003. "We will have to settle in some cases for the Chevy."

Fairfax never did trade in that Cadillac. Nor did other area localities that depend heavily on property-tax revenue.

Now Fairfax has begun a "lines of business" review that will break its budget into hundreds of sub-categories for closer scrutiny and possible cuts. In Prince William, supervisors are considering eliminating $370 million in road improvements, and other outer counties still financing basic infrastructure face deepening challenges.

Connolly said that as long as localities are heavily dependent on property taxes -- they account for nearly 60 percent of Fairfax's general fund -- the boom-and-bust cycles are inevitable.

"When real estate catches a cold, local government budgets in Virginia are at risk of catching pneumonia," he said.

But given that everyone understands the predictable ups and downs of the revenue cycle, what did officials do during the good times to prepare for the bad? Some but not much.

Although voters preach the virtues of fiscal prudence, most don't want to do without the services that their taxes underwrite, lawmakers say. During his campaign this fall for the chairmanship of Fairfax's County Board of Supervisors, Republican Gary H. Baise continually denounced what he called the county's "spending frenzy." Connolly rolled easily to a second term.

Even some Republicans, who enjoy decrying the "tax-and-spend" habits of Democratic rivals, said pressure from constituents to part with big surpluses is overwhelming.

"The reality is, when additional revenue comes in, the nature of government is to spend it," said Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey A. Stewart (R-At Large). Some goes back to residents in the form of lower tax rates to offset soaring property assessments. Much of the rest goes toward basic services and popular programs.

"The nature of elected bodies is that they are there to meet immediate demands," said Fairfax Supervisor Michael R. Frey (R-Sully). On the whole, he added, "we've been pretty prudent."

That last point is debatable, some say. One factor driving spending is the tendency of elected officials to treat employees as potential voters and campaign contributors. Since 2004, Fairfax firefighters, as a group the county's leading donor to local campaigns, have received annual pay increases averaging 10.8 percent, counting merit increases, for which half the force is eligible annually, according to county data.

Montgomery, which unlike Virginia localities can impose an income tax, derives only 33 percent of its operating revenue through property taxes. This year, it negotiated labor agreements that give some workers cost-of-living increases totaling 17 percent over the next three years in addition to annual step increases of 3.5 percent, one reason why spending has grown an average of 7.8 percent annually since 2001. The accord was finalized this spring by County Executive Isiah Leggett (D) but is largely the legacy of his predecessor, Douglas M. Duncan (D).