In N.H., the Swing Voter Is Vanishing

But in last week's UNH survey, he showed gains among undeclared voters intending to vote in the Democratic primary, with 36 percent saying they would vote for him and 26 percent saying they would vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), putting him in a tie with her overall. Obama's advisers here say it simply took a little longer for independent voters to move to him than it did for them to rally around Bradley in 2000, because Obama is newer to the political scene.

"Voters did not know who Barack Obama was. Barack Obama was someone they had to learn about," said Jim Demers, a Concord lobbyist who is co-chairing Obama's campaign here.

The McCain campaign does not dispute that it is pursuing a more limited universe of New Hampshire independents than in 2000. Advisers say the campaign is still targeting independents more than it is establishment Republicans, with an effort that includes a television advertisement showing McCain speaking directly to the camera about the special interests and establishment Republicans he has aggravated over the years. But this time, advisers say, McCain is competing less for undeclared voters who are also considering voting for a Democrat than going after undeclared voters who would vote in the GOP primary no matter what.

Lieberman's endorsement, they said, helps in that regard, drawing Republican-leaning independents who admire his resolve on the war, as well as establishment Republicans who perhaps see in his endorsement proof that McCain would be electable next fall. But there is little illusion that the support of Lieberman, who draws the scorn of many Democrats, will win over independents interested in Obama.

"There's going to be a good percentage of independents who historically take the Republican ballot and don't care about Barack or Hillary, and we want their votes, and this is a great way to solidify that," said Duprey, the McCain adviser.

The lack of direct competition between the Obama and McCain campaigns is clear in the contrast between their appearances here. In a recent visit, Obama presided over a panel discussion with his foreign policy advisers before about 120 voters in Portsmouth. In it, he laid out his plans for using diplomacy to reengage America with the rest of the world.

McCain, by contrast, has adopted a much more muscular tone than he did in 2000, with a martial campaign logo, a video highlighting his military heroism played for crowds at his appearances, and a heavy emphasis on his support of the Iraq war. At most appearances, McCain asks veterans in the crowd to stand to be applauded, and questions regarding veterans' issues -- and inside jokes between McCain and veterans -- dominate his events more than they did in 2000. In Bedford, McCain dismissed a question by a young woman who cited poll numbers showing that a majority of military families question the war, telling her: "I know the military, and I know that by the thousands they categorically reject that assertion."

While the approach may have a narrower appeal than McCain's reform platform of 2000, it has solidified his support among some core Republican-leaning independent backers, such as Ed McCabe, a landlord and Army reservist who has served in Iraq.

"A lot of us were with McCain last time, and a lot of those same people want to be able to say 'I was right last time' " by backing McCain again now, he said.