South Africans Head to the Polls

POLOKWANE, South Africa Dec. 18--Thousands of African National Congress activists lined up in the rain Tuesday morning to elect a new leader: either incumbent President Thabo Mbeki or the man he fired in 2005 because of alleged corruption, former deputy president Jacob Zuma.

Each candidate's supporters sang and danced their way to the polls. Zuma's supporters also heckled members of Mbeki's cabinet as they passed by, blocking the way of Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota and prompting Finance Minister Trevor Manuel to use his umbrella as a shield as he pressed his way through the crowd.

Both sides expressed confidence that they would win a majority of votes from the 3,900 delegates, though Zuma's support has been far more vociferous and visible during the conference's first three days here on the outskirts of the northern city of Polokwane.

Mbeki supporters said they had chosen to act in a more dignified manner rather than engaging in shouting matches with Zuma's backers. "We have been quiet to show our discipline," said Numveliso Nyunkwana, 35, as she marched and sang liberation songs along with a large delegation from the Eastern Cape province, Mbeki's ancestral home.

The results of the vote for party leader, which are expected either late Tuesday or Wednesday morning, will profoundly shape the battle for the national presidency ahead of the next general election in 2009. The African National Congress so dominates South African politics that its nominee for president is virtually certain to win.

An Mbeki victory here at the party conference would allow him wide latitude in selecting an ally, most likely Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, as the party's nominee for national president. Mbeki himself is prohibited by the constitution from running for a third term.

A Zuma victory would cement his position as the favorite to become the party's nominee in 2009. The main obstacle would be the possibility that prosecutors revive criminal charges against him stemming from a multi-billion-dollar arms deal in 1999.

Zuma already has defeated in court an initial round of corruption charges and also charges of rape for a sexual encounter with a family friend infected with HIV. In the rape case, he was widely ridiculed for saying in court that he showered after the sexual encounter to minimize his possibility of infection -- a statement showed a poor understanding of how to protect against a disease that is ravaging the nation.

National prosecutors have said they may file new corruption charges against Zuma early in the new year, and an affidavit filed last week also raised the possibility of charges for tax evasion, which generally are easier to prove than corruption charges. Mbeki fired Zuma as deputy president after his financial adviser was convicted for soliciting a bribe on his behalf.

Zuma, a populist former guerrilla leader reputed to have several wives and as many as 20 children, has emerged since then as the candidate of the party's disaffected left, including trade unionists and Communists who contend that Mbeki failed to do enough improve the lives of poor people. He also has strong support among his Zulu ethnic group, which long has contended that the leadership of the African National Congress is dominated by the Xhosa group that includes both Mbeki and his predecessor, Nelson Mandela.

Should Zuma win Tuesday but later be convicted, outgoing party Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe, whom Zuma has endorsed as his deputy president, would likely become party president and its nominee for national president in 2009.

The prospect of a Zuma presidency already has caused unease among financial markets, with the rand falling in recent trading. Zuma has traveled to the United States and elsewhere in attempt to reassure investors that his victory would not signal a major change in cautious fiscal policies implemented by Mbeki.

Mbeki operatives insistthat they can turn back the apparent tide of support for Zuma. Procedural issues over vote counting and which delegates are eligible to vote were hotly debated behind closed doors during the first two days of the conference.

Former Transport Minister Mac Maharaj, who has not publicly endorsed either candidate, said Mbeki's supporters may be misjudging the mood of the national conference.

"Maybe they're getting so disconnected from the ordinary people that they can't read the message from the ground," Maharaj said. "The message from the ground is they want change."