Iowa Poll Spotlights Importance Of Turnout
Obama and Clinton Lead the Democrats

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 19, 2007; A01

Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York remain deadlocked in Iowa, with former senator John Edwards of North Carolina trailing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that underscores the importance of the massive efforts the Democratic candidates have set in motion to turn out supporters on Jan. 3.

In a race that could hinge on a campaign's ability to motivate voters to brave wintry conditions and spend hours attending caucuses, each of the leading contenders appears to enjoy distinct advantages. More of Obama's backers said they are certain to participate than did those who have gotten behind Clinton. But Clinton's supporters are the most committed and enthusiastic, and Edwards counts among his supporters experienced caucus attendees who are more likely to turn out again.

Enthusiasm for a candidate and familiarity with the process are critical components in the caucuses, in which voting takes place in public after speeches on behalf of each of the candidates, and complex rules dictate the allocation of delegates.

The three front-runners are pouring resources into the state, viewing the caucuses as potentially decisive in the battle for the Democratic nomination.

Obama has gained ground on Clinton on the question of which Democrat is seen as most electable in November 2008, which had been one of her early calling cards in wooing voters. Clinton retains a significant advantage as the candidate with the best experience to be president.

Overall, 33 percent of likely caucusgoers support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards. A month ago, four percentage points also separated Obama and Clinton at the top (30 percent to 26 percent).

The other Democrats campaigning actively in Iowa remain far behind. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 8 percent in the new poll, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware 4 percent and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut 1 percent.

Iowa's caucuses put a premium on organization, and all the campaigns are engaged in unprecedented efforts to identify supporters and get them to one of the 1,781 precinct caucuses.

Here the poll offers good news for each of the leading candidates. More than seven in 10 of Obama's supporters said they are certain to participate in the caucuses, compared with 59 percent of Clinton's backers.

Clinton's supporters, however, are the most firmly behind her. Seventy percent said they will definitely caucus for her in two weeks, while Edwards's and Obama's supporters were more apt to say there is a good chance they might change their minds. Moreover, 59 percent of Clinton's backers said they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared with 49 percent of Obama's supporters.

Solid support for both Clinton and Edwards rose over the past month, while Obama's remained stable. The level of excitement among Clinton's and Edwards's supporters also increased in that time, but did not change among Obama's.

Adding to the challenge for Clinton and Obama is that they are relying more heavily than Edwards on potential first-time caucus participants. More than half the supporters of Clinton and Obama have never caucused, while two-thirds of Edwards's backers have done so. Edwards is hoping to draw on the network he built in Iowa four years ago when he finished second to Sen. John F. Kerry, the eventual Democratic nominee.

Considering other turnout factors brings no additional clarity. Age and education are two key predictors of caucus participation, with older and more highly educated people disproportionately showing up to vote. While Clinton outpaces Obama among older voters, particularly those aged 65 and up, Obama outperforms her nearly 3 to 1 among those with an education of a college degree or more.

Obama nearly doubles up his competitors among those under age 40 and has made a sizable effort to recruit college students and even some high school students. But they have been far less reliable caucus attendees in the past.

Men favor Obama over Clinton and Edwards in the new poll by double-digit margins, while women divide about evenly between Clinton (36 percent) and Obama (32 percent). In the latest Post-ABC national poll, Clinton had a 39-point advantage among women, and she had a 12-point edge with women in the recent Post-ABC New Hampshire survey.

The most important fault line in the electorate continues to be between those who prize fresh ideas and a change in direction, versus those who say strength and experience are more important factors.

By a margin of 56 percent to 33 percent, caucusgoers give a higher priority to new ideas and a new direction. In that group, Obama has a clear advantage -- with 50 percent supporting him to 23 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton.

By contrast, Clinton has a wide lead among those more concerned about experience. Forty-nine percent of these voters favor her candidacy, to 15 percent for Edwards, 13 percent for Richardson and 8 percent for Obama. Clinton's support in this group jumped 11 points over the past month.

On the question of who is most electable in 2008's general election, the gap between Clinton and Obama largely disappeared over the past month. In November, Clinton had a 14-point advantage on electability; the two top candidates now run about even.

Clinton does have a whopping lead on experience; 45 percent cited her as the one with the best r¿sum¿. Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Obama are well back. On a separate question, 61 percent of those surveyed said Obama has the experience to serve effectively as president. But potentially worrisome for him is that voters 55 and older are evenly split, with 48 percent saying he has the requisite experience and 47 percent saying he does not.

Clinton also leads on the question of which candidate is the strongest leader, although not by the overwhelming margin she enjoys on the measure in national polling.

Obama's biggest advantage over the other candidates came on the question of who is the most honest. But Clinton has made gains on trustworthiness: Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed said she is willing enough to speak her mind on the issues, up nine points from a month ago. Obama has a narrow lead as the candidate who "best understands the problems of people like you."

The poll showed a slight shift in the priorities of Iowa voters. Health care topped Iraq as the most important issue, although the two remain voters' central concerns in the election.

Clinton is seen as best able to deal with health care by almost 2 to 1 over Obama and Edwards. She enjoys a smaller advantage on who can best deal with the economy. On Iraq, she and Obama were essentially even; on this issue, Obama has improved 11 percentage points from the summer.

Because of the rules for Iowa's Democratic caucuses, voters' second choices can affect the results in many precincts. When the votes for other candidates were reallocated on the basis of second choices, Obama led with 37 percent to Clinton's 31 percent and Edwards's 26 percent. But Iowa Democratic Party officials cautioned against assuming there would be a consistent pattern in how second choices would translate to individual precinct results.

The poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 13 to 17, among a random sample of 652 Iowa adults likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Polling began after the Democratic candidates squared off in their final debate of the year and ended the day after Clinton received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Iowa's largest newspaper. The endorsement did not have an immediate impact: Her support before and after the endorsement were similar in this poll.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.