Surging Huckabee Takes Lead in Iowa Over Romney

About half of Romney's backers said they are sure that they will support him at the caucuses, and while 47 percent said there is a chance they could opt for another candidate, that is down from 70 percent a month ago. The percentage saying they are very enthusiastic about voting for him is also up over that time.

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The enthusiasm factor will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the caucuses. Iowa's caucuses, unlike traditional primaries, require voters to brave freezing weather and to spend hours debating the merits of the candidates before the balloting.

The new poll numbers may be somewhat dispiriting to Thompson, who has made Iowa a centerpiece of his campaign. He runs a distant third among the conservatives he hoped would be the bedrock of his support, but some believe a strong showing in last week's Des Moines Register debate and the endorsement of Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) on Monday could spark a resurgence before Jan. 3.

Giuliani, who has led national polls all year, has largely written off Iowa, choosing instead to focus somewhat on the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8 and casting Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his firewall. The lack of effort in a state that values retail politicking has consequences: His support has dipped below the double digits in Iowa, and the percentages calling him the GOP's strongest leader and most electable candidate have dropped significantly.

Huckabee, by contrast, has made large advances over the past month on four critical attributes. He has made double-digit gains in perceptions that he is the strongest leader in the field, the one with the best chance to win in November (although Romney maintains the edge), the most empathetic and the one who has campaigned the hardest in the state.

While voters have recognized Huckabee's stepped-up efforts in Iowa, Romney, who has focused resources on the state all year, is viewed by more than six in 10 as the candidate who has done the most to win them over.

Huckabee has also broadened his appeal.

His support is still concentrated among Christian conservatives -- 62 percent are evangelical Protestants, 76 percent attend church at least weekly and 88 percent are conservative -- but he is doing somewhat better among more moderate Republicans. Moreover, a month ago, Huckabee was regarded as a single-issue candidate, scoring well as the best able to handle social issues but lagging on other top concerns, including immigration.

Now, as many voters call Huckabee the candidate best able to deal with immigration, taxes, the Iraq war and terrorism as those who favor Romney. Romney maintains an advantage on the economy and Huckabee has a 12-point edge on handling social issues, such as abortion and same-sex civil unions.

Religion remains a key factor in the campaign: Huckabee draws primarily from religious voters, and Romney's Mormon faith may also be an issue. Although a majority of evangelical Protestants said Romney's religion does not make a difference to them, more than a third said they are less likely to support him because he is a Mormon.

Among those who highlight abortion or moral and family values as one of their top two voting issues, Huckabee has a commanding 43-point lead over Romney. Among those citing immigration, 32 percent support Romney and 24 percent back Huckabee, signaling a potential opening for the former Massachusetts governor in the final stretch.

Romney has spent the better part of the past two weeks attacking Huckabee for his record on illegal immigration as governor of Arkansas. In a recent television ad, Romney criticized Huckabee for supporting in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants: "On immigration, the choice matters," the ad's narrator intoned.

Huckabee has insisted that Romney is twisting his handling of the issue for political gain, but he has yet to respond directly via television ads. Instead, Huckabee is running a Christmas-themed ad in which he empathizes with voters' fatigue with the campaign.

The poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 13 to 17, among a random sample of 501 Iowa adults likely to attend a Republican caucus on Jan. 3. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. The error margins for subgroups are larger.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.