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Pakistan's Islamic Parties Struggle for Support
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But he said there are other reasons, too, why the religious parties may suffer setbacks in the upcoming elections. In 2002, he said, the United States had only recently invaded Afghanistan. The memory was fresh, and anxiety about a similar strike against Pakistan was near its peak. The religious parties used that to their advantage.
"Now time has passed, and the intensity of the anger has lowered," he said.
And yet, there is a more ominous explanation for the religious parties' struggles.
It's also possible, Ayaz said, that some of those who believe in bringing Islamic law to Pakistan -- particularly the young -- are giving up on the democratic process and on the Islamic parties. They're going underground instead, choosing insurgency instead of politics.
In the slums of Peshawar, where veterans of the war in Afghanistan hobble on peg legs through trash-strewn streets, that theory has some credence.
"The Taliban system is the best system," said Sabiq Shah, a 42-year-old peanut salesman. "It will come to Pakistan. Either through election or revolution, it does not matter which."
Special correspondent Imtiaz Ali contributed to this report.
